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Kalmar FF vs Trelleborg — Svenska Cupen 2019

Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
2/19/2023Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Gasten konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kalmar FF51%
×Draw23%
Trelleborg27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalmar FF
1.88
Trelleborg
1.31

Kalmar FF creates 44% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

creates per match

Kalmar FF
2.31
Trelleborg
1.61

allows per match

Kalmar FF
1.00
Trelleborg
1.44

finishing

Kalmar FF+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw
73%
Kalmar FF or Trelleborg
77%
Draw or Trelleborg
49%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+
28%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals
85%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
56%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
29%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
73%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
38%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
65%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 2.31 + Trelleborg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.88

Trelleborg attack 1.61 + Kalmar FF defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kalmar FF scores more
51%
level
23%
Trelleborg scores more
27%

Kalmar FF at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalmar FF vs Trelleborg

Kalmar FF beat Trelleborg 3-2 in Svenska Cupen on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Gasten konstgräs in Kalmar.