Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kalmar FF vs Trelleborg — Allsvenskan 2018

Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
10/31/2018AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 28Guldfågeln Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kalmar FF51%
×Draw25%
Trelleborg24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalmar FF
1.59
Trelleborg
1.00

Kalmar FF creates 59% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kalmar FF
1.11
Trelleborg
0.80

allows per match

Kalmar FF
1.21
Trelleborg
2.07

finishing

Kalmar FF+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw
76%
Kalmar FF or Trelleborg
75%
Draw or Trelleborg
49%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+
27%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals
80%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
47%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
21%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
63%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
26%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
68%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.21 · 113 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 1.11 + Trelleborg defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.59

Trelleborg attack 0.80 + Kalmar FF defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kalmar FF scores more
51%
level
25%
Trelleborg scores more
24%

Kalmar FF at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kalmar FF vs Trelleborg

Kalmar FF beat Trelleborg 2-1 in Allsvenskan on October 31, 2018.

The match was played at Guldfågeln Arena in Kalmar.