Trat FC 1–1 Sukhothai FC: Result & Stats

Trat FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sukhothai FC

L. Cohen 8'

N. Bonilla 13'

2/11/2024

League #296 · Round 16Trat Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Trat FC33%

×Draw29%

Sukhothai FC38%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trat FCExpected goals in this matchSukhothai FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.15

Trat FC

1.06

Sukhothai FC

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

1.38

creates per match

0.75

1.54

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Trat FC

1.38

Sukhothai FC

0.75

allows per match

Trat FC

1.54

Sukhothai FC

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par

Sukhothai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Sukhothai FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw

62%

Trat FC or Sukhothai FC

71%

Draw or Sukhothai FC

67%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+

13%

Sukhothai FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals

65%

Trat FC 2+ goals

29%

Trat FC 3+ goals

9%

Sukhothai FC 1+ goals

68%

Sukhothai FC 2+ goals

32%

Sukhothai FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)

47%

Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Sukhothai FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.38 + Sukhothai FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.06

Sukhothai FC attack 0.75 + Trat FC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Trat FC scores more

33%

level

29%

Sukhothai FC scores more

38%

Sukhothai FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sukhothai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Cohen

Trat FC · F

7.6

Match Events

8'

L. Cohen

13'

N. Bonilla

19'

T. Auksonsri← W. Sukhuna

21'

Daizo HorikoshiGoal cancelled

23'

Lursan Thiamrat

28'

Pornpreecha Jarunai

34'

Nelson Bonilla

46'

J. Polmart← S. Chamnarnsilp

46'

P. Lajungreed← K. Kaewnongdang

63'

Thanaset Sujarit

67'

John Baggio

70'

S. Ratniyom← P. Jarunai

75'

Ryohei Arai

77'

A. Ngoenbokkhol← L. Theemrat

88'

Jakkit WachpiromCard upgrade

90'

Jakkit Wachpirom

90+2'

P. Phatthaphon← Thitathorn Auksornsri

90+2'

R. Whanchuen← R. Janchaichit

90+5'

S. Promsupa← E. Chaobut

90+5'

S. Logarwit← N. Bonilla

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TratSukhothai

Overview

55%Possession45%

9Total Shots15

5Corners6

14Fouls27

Shots

9Total Shots15

2On Target5

5Off Target7

2Blocked3

7Inside Box8

2Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

312Total Passes247

243Accurate Passes191

78%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls27

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1