Sukhothai FC 2–2 Trat FC: Result & Stats | Scoreo

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FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

M. Steinbauer 64' (pen)

S. Chamnarnsilp 45+1'

P. Panyanumaporn 10'

1/15/2022

Thai League 2 · Round 19Thung Talay Luang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sukhothai FC63%

×Draw19%

Trat FC18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sukhothai FCExpected goals in this matchTrat FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.14

Sukhothai FC

2.31

Trat FC

1.14

Sukhothai FC creates 103% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 73 away

3.00

creates per match

1.16

1.11

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Sukhothai FC

3.00

Trat FC

1.16

allows per match

Sukhothai FC

1.11

Trat FC

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sukhothai FC+0.00on par

Trat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sukhothai FC ↓

Trat FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Sukhothai FC or draw

82%

Sukhothai FC or Trat FC

81%

Draw or Trat FC

37%

Winning margin

Sukhothai FC wins by 2+

41%

Trat FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sukhothai FC 1+ goals

90%

Sukhothai FC 2+ goals

67%

Sukhothai FC 3+ goals

40%

Trat FC 1+ goals

68%

Trat FC 2+ goals

32%

Trat FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)

78%

Trat FC (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sukhothai FC at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Trat FC away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.63 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sukhothai FC attack 3.00 + Trat FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.31

Trat FC attack 1.16 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sukhothai FC scores more

63%

level

19%

Trat FC scores more

18%

Sukhothai FC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sukhothai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

P. Panyanumaporn

45+1'

S. Chamnarnsilp

46'

P. Pongthong← P. Panyanumaporn

52'

R. Janchaichit← P. Jarunai

64'

M. SteinbauerPenalty

70'

S. Soleb← S. Srikampun

79'

N. Jaroenboot← A. Ngrnbukkol

80'

S. Sutisuk← T. Nakarawong

82'

88'

Jeong Woo-Geun← O. Sow

88'

K. Limsakul← S. Chamnarnsilp

89'

Zaw Min Tun← M. Babo

Sukhothai

Trat

18

T. Srirueng

4

H. Katano

5

P. Failai

27

C. Supma

9

P. Limraksa

8

T. Nakarawong

▼

7

P. Jarunai

▼

6

P. Panyanumaporn

⚽

▼

17

M. Babo

▼

33

Valdo

⚽

11

Conrado

31

S. Pisansub

14

Hwang Do-Yeon

24

S. Srikampun

▼

55

E. Chaobut

25

S. Kaewsangsai

16

M. Steinbauer

⚽

8

A. Ngrnbukkol

▼

11

S. Chamnarnsilp

⚽

▼

22

C. Sapysakunphon

23

M. de Leeuw

10

O. Sow

▼

D. Amato

Manager: D. Amato

70'▲S. Soleb←▼S. Srikampun

79'▲N. Jaroenboot←▼A. Ngrnbukkol

88'▲Jeong Woo-Geun←▼O. Sow

88'▲K. Limsakul←▼S. Chamnarnsilp

Sukhothai FC substitutes

7Soleb5Jaroenboot9Woo-Geun18Limsakul6James15Jankai20Chomphoopluek32Suemark57Hayeehasan

S. Chuayboonchum

Manager: S. Chuayboonchum

46'▲P. Pongthong←▼P. Panyanumaporn

52'▲R. Janchaichit←▼P. Jarunai

80'▲S. Sutisuk←▼T. Nakarawong

89'▲Zaw Min Tun←▼M. Babo

Trat FC substitutes

14Pongthong39Janchaichit10Sutisuk3Tun1Buathong15Thanachartkun21Manchart28Premthanakoon56Insao

Match Recap: Sukhothai FC vs Trat FC

Sukhothai FC and Trat FC drew 2-2 in Thai League 2 on January 15, 2022.

Goals: P. Panyanumaporn (10'), S. Chamnarnsilp (45+1'), M. Steinbauer (64' pen), Valdo (82').

The match was played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium in Sukhothai.