Sukhothai FC 2–4 Trat FC: Result & Stats

Sukhothai FC

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

Trat FC

C. Rattanawong 83'

Jung Myung-Oh 36'

S. Limwattana 79', 75', 67'

Mustafa Azadzoy 64'

2/17/2021

League #296 · Round 20Thung Talay Luang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sukhothai FC51%

×Draw22%

Trat FC27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sukhothai FCExpected goals in this matchTrat FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.32

Sukhothai FC

1.91

Trat FC

1.32

Sukhothai FC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

1.50

creates per match

1.15

1.50

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Sukhothai FC

1.50

Trat FC

1.15

allows per match

Sukhothai FC

1.50

Trat FC

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sukhothai FC+0.00on par

Trat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sukhothai FC ↓

Trat FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sukhothai FC or draw

73%

Sukhothai FC or Trat FC

78%

Draw or Trat FC

49%

Winning margin

Sukhothai FC wins by 2+

29%

Trat FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sukhothai FC 1+ goals

85%

Sukhothai FC 2+ goals

57%

Sukhothai FC 3+ goals

30%

Trat FC 1+ goals

73%

Trat FC 2+ goals

38%

Trat FC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sukhothai FC (draw refunded)

66%

Trat FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sukhothai FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Trat FC away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sukhothai FC attack 1.50 + Trat FC defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.91

Trat FC attack 1.15 + Sukhothai FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sukhothai FC scores more

51%

level

22%

Trat FC scores more

27%

Sukhothai FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sukhothai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

S. Wonghoi

36'

Jung Myung-Oh

42'

D. Sa-ardchom

58'

N. Rakaok

59'

N. Jaroenboot← D. Sa-ardchom

62'

A. Meethoum

64'

Mustafa Azadzoy↳ Ricardo Santos

67'

S. Limwattana↳ Ricardo Santos

69'

Yeo Sung-Hye← S. Ratniyom

75'

S. Limwattana↳ Ricardo Santos

77'

W. Thongkhruea← K. Pimrat

78'

N. Piamplai← J. Grommen

78'

C. Rattanawong← Jung Myung-Oh

79'

S. Limwattana↳ Ricardo Santos

83'

C. Rattanawong↳ E. Chaobut

84'

S. Wongderree← Mustafa Azadzoy

88'

S. Phuk-hom← S. Limwattana

Sukhothai

Trat

81

33

3

2

21

19

▼

Pimrat

23

Tossakai

7

⚽

▼

Azadzoy

8

⚽3

▼

Limwattan

6

Mheetuam

11

A

30

3

17

55

A

Chaobut

5

Krutyai

4

▼

Grommen

16

⚽

▼

Myung-Oh

10

Rakotonom

40

▼

Sa-ardcho

33

▼

Ratniyom

71

Melo

Manager: S. Kongthep

59'▲N. Jaroenboot←▼D. Sa-ardchom

69'▲Yeo Sung-Hye←▼S. Ratniyom

78'▲N. Piamplai←▼J. Grommen

78'▲C. Rattanawong←▼Jung Myung-Oh

Sukhothai FC substitutes

8Jaroenboot18Sung-Hye35Piamplai59Rattanawong43Chanakaree20Chomphoopluek19Nuengprakaew6James15Jaiphet

Manager: P. Khunnaen

77'▲W. Thongkhruea←▼K. Pimrat

84'▲S. Wongderree←▼Mustafa Azadzoy

88'▲S. Phuk-hom←▼S. Limwattana

Trat FC substitutes

36Thongkhruea13Wongderree15Phuk-hom25Srinothai63Raksongkram9Noisri14Pongthong10Jonatan