Trat FC 2–2 Chonburi FC: Result & Stats

Trat FC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Chonburi FC

N. Sombatyotha 38', 11'

Willian Lira 65', 54'

8/13/2023

League #296 · Round 1Trat Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Trat FC43%

×Draw25%

Chonburi FC32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trat FCExpected goals in this matchChonburi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.34

Trat FC

1.58

Chonburi FC

1.34

Trat FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

1.38

creates per match

1.14

1.54

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Trat FC

1.38

Chonburi FC

1.14

allows per match

Trat FC

1.54

Chonburi FC

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par

Chonburi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Chonburi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw

68%

Trat FC or Chonburi FC

75%

Draw or Chonburi FC

57%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+

22%

Chonburi FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals

79%

Trat FC 2+ goals

47%

Trat FC 3+ goals

21%

Chonburi FC 1+ goals

74%

Chonburi FC 2+ goals

39%

Chonburi FC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)

57%

Chonburi FC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Chonburi FC away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.38 + Chonburi FC defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.58

Chonburi FC attack 1.14 + Trat FC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Trat FC scores more

43%

level

25%

Chonburi FC scores more

32%

Trat FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

N. Sombatyotha↳ P. Jarunai

38'

N. Sombatyotha↳ T. Sujarit

46'

A. Ouattara← P. Phonsa

54'

Willian Lira

61'

P. Phimpae← B. Davis

64'

C. Promsrikaew

64'

S. Thongkot← N. Sombatyotha

65'

Willian Lira↳ C. Promsrikaew

69'

R. Moraksa← N. Kotchpalayuk

71'

P. Phimpae

73'

S. ThongkotGoal Disallowed - offside

76'

M. Budrak← R. Whanchuen

77'

R. Moraksa

84'

P. Kantanet← P. Phatthaphon

84'

Yashir Islame← L. Cohen

84'

R. Janchaichit← P. Jarunai

86'

K. Thawikan← C. Promsrikaew

86'

90'

90+6'

90+7'

Trat

Chonburi

35

Sae-Ear

33

M'Boné

2

▼

Kotchpala

3

Rueangtha

65

▼

Lemdee

24

▼

Phonsa

19

Sontisawa

5

Kaman

22

▼

Davis

7

A

▼

Promsrika

9

⚽2

Lira

25

Srinothai

46

Fellipe

36

A

Sujarit

2

Auksornsr

3

▼

Phatthaph

24

Ratniyom

7

A

▼

Jarunai

5

Wiroonsri

10

▼

Cohen

9

⚽2

▼

Sombatyot

27

▼

Whanchuen

Manager: S. Chaiyaphuak

64'▲S. Thongkot←▼N. Sombatyotha

76'▲M. Budrak←▼R. Whanchuen

84'▲P. Kantanet←▼P. Phatthaphon

84'▲Yashir Islame←▼L. Cohen

84'▲R. Janchaichit←▼P. Jarunai

Trat FC substitutes

11Thongkot14Budrak21Kantanet8Islame39Janchaichit1Sukhuna4Raksongkham88Poomsongtham16Klinkosum

Manager: M. Teguramori

46'▲A. Ouattara←▼P. Phonsa

61'▲P. Phimpae←▼B. Davis

69'▲R. Moraksa←▼N. Kotchpalayuk

86'▲K. Thawikan←▼C. Promsrikaew

86'▲P. Trisat←▼B. Lemdee

Chonburi FC substitutes

81Ouattara14Phimpae32Moraksa10Thawikan91Trisat40Chan-Dong23Yokakul26Kaewphung15Sanmahung

League #296: Trat FC 2–2 Chonburi FC

Trat FC and Chonburi FC drew 2-2 in League #296 on August 13, 2023.

Goals: N. Sombatyotha (11', 38'), Willian Lira (54', 65').

The match was played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium in Trat.

Trat FC vs Chonburi FC — League #296 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #296: Trat FC 2–2 Chonburi FC