Chonburi FC 3–2 Trat FC: Result & Stats

Chonburi FC

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Trat FC

Y. Burapha 63'

A. Ouattara 33'

Willian Lira 1'

Jorge Fellipe 83' (pen)

Lee Keun-Ho 66'

5/26/2024

League #296 · Round 30Chonburi UTA Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Chonburi FC57%

×Draw20%

Trat FC23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chonburi FCExpected goals in this matchTrat FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.34

Chonburi FC

2.20

Trat FC

1.34

Chonburi FC creates 64% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.08

creates per match

1.15

1.54

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Chonburi FC

2.08

Trat FC

1.15

allows per match

Chonburi FC

1.54

Trat FC

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chonburi FC+0.00on par

Trat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chonburi FC ↓

Trat FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Chonburi FC or draw

77%

Chonburi FC or Trat FC

80%

Draw or Trat FC

43%

Winning margin

Chonburi FC wins by 2+

35%

Trat FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chonburi FC 1+ goals

89%

Chonburi FC 2+ goals

64%

Chonburi FC 3+ goals

37%

Trat FC 1+ goals

74%

Trat FC 2+ goals

39%

Trat FC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Chonburi FC (draw refunded)

71%

Trat FC (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chonburi FC at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Trat FC away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chonburi FC attack 2.08 + Trat FC defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.20

Trat FC attack 1.15 + Chonburi FC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Chonburi FC scores more

57%

level

20%

Trat FC scores more

23%

Chonburi FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Chonburi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

C. Promsrikaew

Chonburi FC · M

8.7

Match Events

1'

Willian Lira↳ C. Promsrikaew

33'

A. Ouattara↳ Willian Lira

40'

Naphat Chumpanya

46'

M. Budrak← P. Phatthaphon

54'

Noppanon Kachaplayuk

55'

P. Trisat← N. Kotchpalayuk

55'

K. Sansanit← S. Sontisawat

56'

Santipap Ratniyorm

63'

Y. Burapha↳ C. Promsrikaew

66'

Lee Keun-Ho↳ D. Horikoshi

69'

R. Janchaichit← C. Raksongkham

80'

K. Kalasin← N. Chumpanya

80'

N. Sriyankem← Y. Burapha

82'

Thitawee Auksornsri← Lee Keun-Ho

82'

S. Thongkot← L. Cohen

83'

Jorge FellipePenalty

86'

R. Whanchuen← S. Ratniyom

90+3'

T. Kaewphung← Willian Lira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChonburiTrat

Overview

53%Possession47%

21Total Shots12

3Corners5

14Fouls6

Shots

21Total Shots12

8On Target5

10Off Target3

3Blocked4

12Inside Box8

9Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

416Total Passes362

361Accurate Passes313

87%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls6

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides3