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Chonburi FC vs Trat FC — FA Cup 2018

Chonburi FC
Chonburi FCadvanced
FT
5 – 1
Trat FC
Trat FC
P. Ponsa 90+3'
Eliandro 65', 23', 1'
C. Rueangthanarot 18'
R. Santos 49' (pen)
4/3/2021FA CupFA Cup · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Chonburi FC51%
×Draw18%
Trat FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chonburi FC
2.92
Trat FC
2.30

Chonburi FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Chonburi FC
3.70
Trat FC
4.00

allows per match

Chonburi FC
0.60
Trat FC
2.14

finishing

Chonburi FC+0.00on par
Trat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chonburi FC ↓

Trat FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

Chonburi FC or draw
69%
Chonburi FC or Trat FC
82%
Draw or Trat FC
49%

Winning margin

Chonburi FC wins by 2+
33%
Trat FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Chonburi FC 1+ goals
94%
Chonburi FC 2+ goals
78%
Chonburi FC 3+ goals
55%
Trat FC 1+ goals
90%
Trat FC 2+ goals
67%
Trat FC 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Chonburi FC (draw refunded)
62%
Trat FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chonburi FC at home — creates 3.70, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Trat FC away — creates 4.00, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chonburi FC attack 3.70 + Trat FC defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.92

Trat FC attack 4.00 + Chonburi FC defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chonburi FC scores more
51%
level
18%
Trat FC scores more
31%

Chonburi FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chonburi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
Eliandro
18'
C. Rueangthanarot
23'
Eliandro
49'
R. SantosPenalty
65'
Eliandro
90+3'
P. Ponsa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chonburi FC vs Trat FC

Chonburi FC beat Trat FC 5-1 in FA Cup on April 3, 2021.

Goals: Eliandro (1', 23', 65'), C. Rueangthanarot (18'), R. Santos (49' pen), P. Ponsa (90+3').