TransINVEST Vilnius 1–0 Jonava: Result & Stats

TransINVEST Vilnius

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jonava

Y. Glushach 80'

3/8/2025

1 Lyga · Round 1Sirvintu stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

TransINVEST Vilnius63%

×Draw20%

Jonava17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TransINVEST VilniusExpected goals in this matchJonava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.01

TransINVEST Vilnius

2.15

Jonava

1.01

TransINVEST Vilnius creates 113% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 72 away

2.80

creates per match

1.32

0.70

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

TransINVEST Vilnius

2.80

Jonava

1.32

allows per match

TransINVEST Vilnius

0.70

Jonava

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par

Jonava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TransINVEST Vilnius ↓

Jonava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

TransINVEST Vilnius or draw

83%

TransINVEST Vilnius or Jonava

80%

Draw or Jonava

37%

Winning margin

TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+

40%

Jonava wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals

88%

TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals

63%

TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals

36%

Jonava 1+ goals

64%

Jonava 2+ goals

27%

Jonava 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)

79%

Jonava (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TransINVEST Vilnius at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.70 · 30 matches

Jonava away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 2.80 + Jonava defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 2.15

Jonava attack 1.32 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

TransINVEST Vilnius scores more

63%

level

20%

Jonava scores more

17%

TransINVEST Vilnius at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "TransINVEST Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

53'

61'

65'

Y. Glushach← H. Tanaka

65'

A. Fedorov← A. Kazakevicius

65'

J. Lubas← Cesinha

65'

M. Ganusauskas← M. Barila

70'

A. Zulpa← L. Pilibaitis

76'

N. Petkus← A. Tamasevicius

80'

Y. Glushach

90'

TransINVEST

Jonava

1

9

11

12

17

21

23

27

▼

44

67

92

99

2

5

9

10

13

▼

Tanaka

23

▼

Kazakevic

26

▼

Tamasevic

31

Eduardo

49

▼

Cesinha

77

▼

Pilibaiti

Manager: M. Stankevičius

65'▲Y. Glushach←▼H. Tanaka

65'▲A. Fedorov←▼A. Kazakevicius

65'▲J. Lubas←▼Cesinha

70'▲A. Zulpa←▼L. Pilibaitis

76'▲N. Petkus←▼A. Tamasevicius

TransINVEST Vilnius substitutes

89Cerniavskij8Glushach11Petkus12Kaskelevicius17Planciunas19Fedorov22Lubas44Zulpa61Onuskevicius

Manager: E. Utyra

65'▲M. Ganusauskas←▼M. Barila

Jonava substitutes

16Matuzas5Rackus6Olsauskas20Kiselevskis42Saliunas96Neverdauskas99Ganusauskas

1 Lyga: TransINVEST Vilnius 1–0 Jonava

TransINVEST Vilnius beat Jonava 1-0 in 1 Lyga on March 8, 2025.

Goals: Y. Glushach (80').

The match was played at Sirvintu stadionas in Sirvintos.

TransINVEST Vilnius vs Jonava — 1 Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1 Lyga: TransINVEST Vilnius 1–0 Jonava