Jonava 0–4 TransINVEST Vilnius: Result & Stats

Jonava

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

TransINVEST Vilnius

O. Kobakhidze 84'

L. Pilibaitis 74'

I. Kaskelevicius 52'

H. Devens 47'

8/5/2023

1 Lyga · Round 17Jonavos centrinis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Jonava25%

×Draw21%

TransINVEST Vilnius54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JonavaExpected goals in this matchTransINVEST Vilnius

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

2.12

Jonava

1.41

TransINVEST Vilnius

2.12

TransINVEST Vilnius creates 50% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 29 away

1.78

creates per match

2.86

1.37

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Jonava

1.78

TransINVEST Vilnius

2.86

allows per match

Jonava

1.37

TransINVEST Vilnius

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jonava+0.00on par

TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonava ↓

TransINVEST Vilnius →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Jonava or draw

46%

Jonava or TransINVEST Vilnius

79%

Draw or TransINVEST Vilnius

75%

Winning margin

Jonava wins by 2+

11%

TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Jonava 1+ goals

76%

Jonava 2+ goals

41%

Jonava 3+ goals

17%

TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals

88%

TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals

62%

TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Jonava (draw refunded)

32%

TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonava at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.37 · 73 matches

TransINVEST Vilnius away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonava attack 1.78 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.41

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 2.86 + Jonava defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Jonava scores more

25%

level

21%

TransINVEST Vilnius scores more

54%

TransINVEST Vilnius at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "TransINVEST Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

H. Devens

52'

I. Kaskelevicius

74'

L. Pilibaitis

84'

O. Kobakhidze

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff