TransINVEST Vilnius 1–2 Jonava: Result & Stats

TransINVEST Vilnius

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Jonava

B. Spietinis 75' (OG)

P. Osauskas 84'

M. Ganusauskas 63'

5/25/2022

Cup · Round of 16Širvintų stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

TransINVEST Vilnius19%

×Draw17%

Jonava65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TransINVEST VilniusExpected goals in this matchJonava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

2.94

TransINVEST Vilnius

1.56

Jonava

2.94

Jonava creates 88% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

2.22

creates per match

5.00

0.89

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

TransINVEST Vilnius

2.22

Jonava

5.00

allows per match

TransINVEST Vilnius

0.89

Jonava

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par

Jonava+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TransINVEST Vilnius ↓

Jonava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

TransINVEST Vilnius or draw

35%

TransINVEST Vilnius or Jonava

83%

Draw or Jonava

81%

Winning margin

TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+

8%

Jonava wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals

79%

TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals

46%

TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals

21%

Jonava 1+ goals

95%

Jonava 2+ goals

79%

Jonava 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)

22%

Jonava (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TransINVEST Vilnius at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Jonava away — creates 5.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 2.22 + Jonava defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.56

Jonava attack 5.00 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 2.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

TransINVEST Vilnius scores more

19%

level

17%

Jonava scores more

65%

Jonava at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Jonava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

M. Ganusauskas← J. Jorrín

63'

M. Ganusauskas

66'

P. Osauskas← T. Buzas

71'

A. Bulka← P. Kiselevskis

71'

D. Zybartas← A. Tamaliunas

71'

A. Valukonis← L. Tchapodze

75'

B. SpietinisOwn goal

84'

P. Osauskas

86'

G. Vasylius← J. Tapia

TransINVEST

Jonava

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Barevičius

71'▲A. Bulka←▼P. Kiselevskis

71'▲D. Zybartas←▼A. Tamaliunas

71'▲A. Valukonis←▼L. Tchapodze

TransINVEST Vilnius substitutes

BulkaZybartasValukonisMaciulevičiusGelžinisŠalkauskasSkuratovičStankevičiusČipkus

Manager: Y. Lutsenko

60'▲M. Ganusauskas←▼J. Jorrín

66'▲P. Osauskas←▼T. Buzas

86'▲G. Vasylius←▼J. Tapia

Jonava substitutes

GanusauskasOsauskasVasyliusČepkauskasMartorellMatheusKostikKawachi

Match Recap: TransINVEST Vilnius vs Jonava

Jonava beat TransINVEST Vilnius 2-1 in Cup on May 25, 2022.

Goals: M. Ganusauskas (63'), B. Spietinis (75' o.g.), P. Osauskas (84').

The match was played at Širvintų stadionas in Širvintos.

TransINVEST Vilnius vs Jonava — Cup 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: TransINVEST Vilnius vs Jonava