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Tranmere vs Stevenage — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stevenage
Stevenage
K. Morris 48'
2/1/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 19Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Tranmere45%
×Draw28%
Stevenage27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.29
Stevenage
0.94

Tranmere creates 37% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 100 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.33
Stevenage
0.80

allows per match

Tranmere
1.07
Stevenage
1.24

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
73%
Tranmere or Stevenage
72%
Draw or Stevenage
55%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
20%
Stevenage wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
72%
Tranmere 2+ goals
37%
Tranmere 3+ goals
14%
Stevenage 1+ goals
61%
Stevenage 2+ goals
24%
Stevenage 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
62%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 143 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.33 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Tranmere defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tranmere scores more
45%
level
28%
Stevenage scores more
27%

Tranmere at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
C. MacDonaldTranmereTranmere · D
8.3

Match Events

11'
L. O'Neill← B. Coker
15'
Terence Vancooten
46'
S. Foley← J. Spearing
48'
K. Morris↳ K. Hemmings
51'
J. Hawkes← J. McPake
61'
C. Carter← J. Reeves
68'
L. Prosser← M. Bostwick
85'
C. Merrie← P. Glatzel

Possession

45%Tranmere

Shots

12Tranmere

Pass accuracy

49%Tranmere

Statistics

TranmereStevenage
Overview
45%Possession55%
12Total Shots10
7Corners5
4Fouls6
Shots
12Total Shots10
6On Target2
2Off Target6
4Blocked2
7Inside Box7
5Outside Box3
Passing
45%Possession55%
411Total Passes499
248Accurate Passes313
60%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
4Fouls6
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

League Two: Tranmere 1–0 Stevenage

Tranmere beat Stevenage 1-0 in League Two on February 1, 2022.

Goals: K. Morris (48').

Stevenage controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Prenton Park in Birkenhead, Merseyside.