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Tranmere vs Stevenage — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stevenage
Stevenage
D. Newton 82'
2/9/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 18Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Tranmere45%
×Draw28%
Stevenage27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.29
Stevenage
0.94

Tranmere creates 37% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 100 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.33
Stevenage
0.80

allows per match

Tranmere
1.07
Stevenage
1.24

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
73%
Tranmere or Stevenage
72%
Draw or Stevenage
55%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
20%
Stevenage wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
72%
Tranmere 2+ goals
37%
Tranmere 3+ goals
14%
Stevenage 1+ goals
61%
Stevenage 2+ goals
24%
Stevenage 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
62%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 143 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.33 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Tranmere defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tranmere scores more
45%
level
28%
Stevenage scores more
27%

Tranmere at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37
D. StockdaleStevenageStevenage · G
7.3

Match Events

32'
B. Coker← J. Martin
35'
M. Stevens← C. Carter
54'
K. Morris← D. Lloyd
58'
C. Jolley← K. Woolery
58'
N. Kirby← A. Crawford
79'
Jay Spearing
82'
D. Newton← L. Norris
82'
D. Newton

Possession

63%Tranmere

Shots

4Tranmere

Pass accuracy

61%Tranmere

Statistics

TranmereStevenage
Overview
63%Possession37%
4Total Shots6
4Corners2
15Fouls4
Shots
4Total Shots6
2On Target2
1Off Target2
1Blocked2
3Inside Box3
1Outside Box3
Passing
63%Possession37%
485Total Passes291
308Accurate Passes118
64%Pass Accuracy41%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls4
1Yellow Cards0

League Two: Tranmere 0–1 Stevenage

Stevenage beat Tranmere 1-0 in League Two on February 9, 2021.

Goals: D. Newton (82').

Tranmere controlled possession (63%) and registered 4 shots to 6.

The match was played at Prenton Park in Birkenhead, Merseyside.