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Stevenage vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tranmere
Tranmere
J. Hawkes 74' (pen)
2/25/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 34The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Stevenage46%
×Draw27%
Tranmere27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.39
Tranmere
1.00

Stevenage creates 39% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 144 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.31
Tranmere
0.97

allows per match

Stevenage
1.04
Tranmere
1.47

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par
Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
73%
Stevenage or Tranmere
73%
Draw or Tranmere
54%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
22%
Tranmere wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
75%
Stevenage 2+ goals
40%
Stevenage 3+ goals
16%
Tranmere 1+ goals
63%
Tranmere 2+ goals
26%
Tranmere 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
63%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Tranmere away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Tranmere defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Tranmere attack 0.97 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stevenage scores more
46%
level
27%
Tranmere scores more
27%

Stevenage at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
J. MurphyTranmereTranmere · G
8.2

Match Events

26'
Regan Hendry
58'
Josh Hawkes
66'
J. Taylor← A. Gilbey
67'
D. Campbell← M. Bostwick
67'
J. Reid← D. Rose
67'
D. Horgan← J. Roberts
67'
C. Merrie← J. Turner-Cooke
74'
J. HawkesPenalty
77'
Jamie Reid
77'
Josh Dacres-Cogley
78'
Jake Reeves
82'
J. Forster-Caskey← J. Reeves
85'
Tom Davies
89'
J. Burton← H. Saunders
90+7'
K. Jameson← J. Hawkes

Possession

53%Stevenage

Shots

13Stevenage

Pass accuracy

52%Stevenage

Statistics

StevenageTranmere
Overview
53%Possession47%
13Total Shots7
5Corners3
13Fouls18
Shots
13Total Shots7
5On Target4
5Off Target3
3Blocked0
10Inside Box4
3Outside Box3
Passing
53%Possession47%
351Total Passes327
219Accurate Passes186
62%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls18
2Yellow Cards4
5Offsides3

League Two: Stevenage 0–1 Tranmere

Tranmere beat Stevenage 1-0 in League Two on February 25, 2023.

Goals: J. Hawkes (74' pen).

Stevenage controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at The Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.