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Tranmere vs Leyton Orient — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
O. Beckles 82' (OG)
1/28/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 29Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Tranmere40%
×Draw28%
Leyton Orient33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.27
Leyton Orient
1.12

Tranmere creates 13% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 94 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.33
Leyton Orient
1.17

allows per match

Tranmere
1.07
Leyton Orient
1.20

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par
Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
67%
Tranmere or Leyton Orient
72%
Draw or Leyton Orient
60%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
18%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
72%
Tranmere 2+ goals
36%
Tranmere 3+ goals
14%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
67%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
31%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
55%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 143 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.33 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Tranmere defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tranmere scores more
40%
level
28%
Leyton Orient scores more
33%

Tranmere at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
K. MorrisTranmereTranmere · M
7.9

Match Events

54'
C. Clay← G. Moncur
67'
J. Burton← H. Saunders
71'
H. Smith← C. Kelman
71'
R. Sotiriou← J. Lyden
74'
Ruel Sotiriou
74'
L. Chalmers← J. Hawkes
74'
B. Walker← C. Merrie
82'
O. BecklesOwn goal
89'
A. Thompson← K. Sadlier
90'
Theodore Archibald

Possession

46%Tranmere

Shots

9Tranmere

Pass accuracy

50%Tranmere

Statistics

TranmereLeyton
Overview
46%Possession54%
9Total Shots11
6Corners1
6Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots11
1On Target0
6Off Target7
2Blocked4
5Inside Box6
4Outside Box5
Passing
46%Possession54%
390Total Passes466
272Accurate Passes333
70%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
6Fouls10
0Yellow Cards2
4Offsides3

League Two: Tranmere 1–0 Leyton Orient

Tranmere beat Leyton Orient 1-0 in League Two on January 28, 2023.

Goals: O. Beckles (82' o.g.).

Leyton Orient controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Prenton Park in Birkenhead, Merseyside.