Leyton Orient 0–1 Tranmere: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tranmere

K. Hemmings 37'

5/7/2022

League Two · Round 46The Breyer Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Leyton Orient46%

×Draw26%

Tranmere28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.05

Leyton Orient

1.44

Tranmere

1.05

Leyton Orient creates 37% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 144 away

1.41

creates per match

0.97

1.13

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

Tranmere

0.97

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

Tranmere

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

72%

Leyton Orient or Tranmere

74%

Draw or Tranmere

54%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

22%

Tranmere wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

76%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

42%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

18%

Tranmere 1+ goals

65%

Tranmere 2+ goals

28%

Tranmere 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

63%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Tranmere away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Tranmere defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Tranmere attack 0.97 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

46%

level

26%

Tranmere scores more

28%

Leyton Orient at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

K. Hemmings

Tranmere · F

7.9

Match Events

29'

Lee O'Connor

37'

K. Hemmings↳ J. Dacres-Cogley

45'

Tom Davies

55'

Kane Hemmings

57'

H. Smith← T. James

66'

A. Mitchell← D. Pratley

66'

R. Sotiriou← P. Smyth

66'

C. McManaman← J. Hawkes

69'

Lewis Warrington

70'

J. Spearing← L. OConnor

78'

Theodore Archibald

87'

S. Foley← E. Nevitt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonTranmere

Overview

64%Possession36%

10Total Shots9

10Corners3

9Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots9

2On Target1

4Off Target6

4Blocked2

5Inside Box3

5Outside Box6

Passing

64%Possession36%

538Total Passes307

435Accurate Passes205

81%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls13

1Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1