Tranmere 1–0 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Tranmere

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leyton Orient

J. Spearing 58'

12/18/2021

League Two · Round 22Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Tranmere40%

×Draw28%

Leyton Orient33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.12

Tranmere

1.27

Leyton Orient

1.12

Tranmere creates 13% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 94 away

1.33

creates per match

1.17

1.07

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Tranmere

1.33

Leyton Orient

1.17

allows per match

Tranmere

1.07

Leyton Orient

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

67%

Tranmere or Leyton Orient

72%

Draw or Leyton Orient

60%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

18%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

72%

Tranmere 2+ goals

36%

Tranmere 3+ goals

14%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

67%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

31%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

55%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 143 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.33 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Tranmere defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tranmere scores more

40%

level

28%

Leyton Orient scores more

33%

Tranmere at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

R. Doohan

Tranmere · G

7.7

Match Events

34'

Tom Davies

48'

Daniel Happe

58'

J. Spearing↳ J. Hawkes

66'

P. Smyth← D. Kemp

67'

70'

88'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TranmereLeyton

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots14

6Corners4

11Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots14

4On Target4

2Off Target7

5Blocked3

6Inside Box6

5Outside Box8

Passing

46%Possession54%

314Total Passes371

162Accurate Passes244

52%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

League Two: Tranmere 1–0 Leyton Orient

Tranmere beat Leyton Orient 1-0 in League Two on December 18, 2021.

Goals: J. Spearing (58').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (54%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Prenton Park in Birkenhead, Merseyside.

Tranmere vs Leyton Orient — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Tranmere 1–0 Leyton Orient