Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tranmere vs Leyton Orient — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
D. Johnson 71'
10/20/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 7Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Tranmere40%
×Draw28%
Leyton Orient33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.27
Leyton Orient
1.12

Tranmere creates 13% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 94 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.33
Leyton Orient
1.17

allows per match

Tranmere
1.07
Leyton Orient
1.20

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par
Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
67%
Tranmere or Leyton Orient
72%
Draw or Leyton Orient
60%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
18%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
72%
Tranmere 2+ goals
36%
Tranmere 3+ goals
14%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
67%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
31%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
55%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 143 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.33 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Tranmere defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tranmere scores more
40%
level
28%
Leyton Orient scores more
33%

Tranmere at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
O. AkinolaLeyton OrientLeyton Orient · D
7.7

Match Events

69'
C. Wilkinson← J. Maguire-Drew
71'
D. Johnson↳ C. Clay
73'
S. Nelson← L. OConnor
77'
O. Khan← O. Banks
86'
J. Widdowson← R. Sotiriou
90+5'
J. Dayton← J. Brophy

Possession

43%Tranmere

Shots

5Tranmere

Pass accuracy

48%Tranmere

Statistics

TranmereLeyton
Overview
43%Possession57%
5Total Shots16
2Corners7
11Fouls5
Shots
5Total Shots16
1On Target4
3Off Target8
1Blocked4
3Inside Box10
2Outside Box6
Passing
43%Possession57%
349Total Passes456
233Accurate Passes338
67%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls5
3Offsides0

League Two: Tranmere 0–1 Leyton Orient

Leyton Orient beat Tranmere 1-0 in League Two on October 20, 2020.

Goals: D. Johnson (71').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 5.

The match was played at Prenton Park in Birkenhead, Merseyside.