Tranmere 3–2 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Tranmere

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Cheltenham

J. Day 86' (OG)

J. Ironside 11'

J. Wilson 2' (OG)

J. Martin 77'

J. Thomas 34'

11/15/2025

League Two · Round 16Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Tranmere38%

×Draw28%

Cheltenham34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.15

Tranmere

1.23

Cheltenham

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

1.10

creates per match

1.05

1.25

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Tranmere

1.10

Cheltenham

1.05

allows per match

Tranmere

1.25

Cheltenham

1.36

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Tranmere+0.21scores more

Cheltenham-0.05on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

66%

Tranmere or Cheltenham

72%

Draw or Cheltenham

62%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

16%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

71%

Tranmere 2+ goals

35%

Tranmere 3+ goals

13%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

68%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

32%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

53%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.36 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.10 + Cheltenham defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.23

Cheltenham attack 1.05 + Tranmere defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tranmere scores more

38%

level

28%

Cheltenham scores more

34%

Tranmere at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

J. Thomas

Cheltenham · F

8.2

Match Events

2'

J. WilsonOwn goal

11'

J. Ironside

34'

J. Thomas↳ J. Bickerstaff

46'

H. Adelakun← B. Stevenson

65'

K. Dennis← C. Jennings

65'

J. Davison← J. Ironside

66'

68'

72'

73'

77'

J. Martin↳ H. Adelakun

84'

B. Blacker← J. Lowe

84'

A. McGowan← R. Smallwood

85'

Luke Young

86'

J. DayOwn goal

88'

T. Taylor← E. Archer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TranmereCheltenham

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots14

1.58Expected Goals (xG)1.50

2Corners7

5Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots14

4On Target4

6Off Target5

3Blocked5

10Inside Box6

3Outside Box8

Passing

45%Possession55%

340Total Passes401

254Accurate Passes297

75%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

5Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2

League Two: Tranmere 3–2 Cheltenham

Tranmere beat Cheltenham 3-2 in League Two on November 15, 2025.

Goals: J. Wilson (2' o.g.), J. Ironside (11'), J. Thomas (34'), J. Martin (77'), J. Day (86' o.g.).

Cheltenham controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Prenton Park in Birkenhead.

Tranmere vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Tranmere 3–2 Cheltenham