Cheltenham 4–0 Tranmere: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Tranmere

C. Wright 57'

A. May 42'

W. Boyle 14'

C. Thomas 4'

4/2/2021

League Two · Round 39Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Cheltenham34%

×Draw26%

Tranmere40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.38

Cheltenham

1.27

Tranmere

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

1.13

creates per match

1.15

1.61

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.13

Tranmere

1.15

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.61

Tranmere

1.42

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.18scores more

Tranmere-0.06on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

60%

Cheltenham or Tranmere

74%

Draw or Tranmere

66%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

15%

Tranmere wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

72%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

36%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

14%

Tranmere 1+ goals

75%

Tranmere 2+ goals

40%

Tranmere 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

47%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 13 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Tranmere defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tranmere attack 1.15 + Cheltenham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cheltenham scores more

34%

level

26%

Tranmere scores more

40%

Tranmere at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

C. Wright

Cheltenham · M

8.3

Match Events

4'

C. Thomas

14'

W. Boyle↳ C. Wright

26'

E. Chapman← C. Thomas

35'

42'

45'

46'

46'

52'

57'

68'

76'

76'

A. Williams← S. Smith

79'

A. Crawford← L. Feeney

82'

F. Azaz← C. Wright

83'

C. Raglan← M. Blair

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamTranmere

Overview

35%Possession65%

15Total Shots10

3Corners0

12Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots10

6On Target3

6Off Target7

3Blocked0

11Inside Box5

4Outside Box5

Passing

35%Possession65%

264Total Passes484

130Accurate Passes352

49%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides4

Match Recap: Cheltenham vs Tranmere

Cheltenham beat Tranmere 4-0 in League Two on April 2, 2021.

Goals: C. Thomas (4'), W. Boyle (14'), A. May (42'), C. Wright (57').

Tranmere controlled possession (65%) and registered 10 shots to 15.

The match was played at Jonny-Rocks Stadium in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire.

Cheltenham vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cheltenham vs Tranmere