Cheltenham 1–0 Tranmere: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tranmere

J. Colwill 89'

11/22/2024

League Two · Round 17EV Charger Points Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Cheltenham35%

×Draw27%

Tranmere38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.32

Cheltenham

1.26

Tranmere

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.13

creates per match

1.18

1.47

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.13

Tranmere

1.18

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.47

Tranmere

1.39

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Cheltenham+0.14scores more

Tranmere-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

62%

Cheltenham or Tranmere

73%

Draw or Tranmere

65%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

15%

Tranmere wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

72%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

36%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

13%

Tranmere 1+ goals

73%

Tranmere 2+ goals

38%

Tranmere 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

48%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 11 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.39 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Tranmere defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Tranmere attack 1.18 + Cheltenham defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cheltenham scores more

35%

level

27%

Tranmere scores more

38%

Tranmere at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

J. Colwill

Cheltenham · M

8.0

Match Events

48'

Lee O'Connor

55'

Lewis Payne

61'

A. Jude-Boyd← L. Payne

61'

M. Taylor← G. Miller

68'

Luke Norris

69'

Tom Davies

70'

H. Saunders← O. Patrick

71'

K. Dennis← L. Norris

83'

J. Hawkes← K. Morris

89'

J. Colwill↳ S. Stubbs

90+3'

T. Pett← E. Archer

90'

C. Merrie← S. Finley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamTranmere

Overview

53%Possession47%

14Total Shots13

5Corners9

7Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots13

4On Target4

5Off Target3

5Blocked6

5Inside Box9

9Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

365Total Passes321

250Accurate Passes207

68%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3