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Tranmere vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
P. Lewis 39' (OG)
A. Williams 20'
C. Raglan 6'
9/19/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 2Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Tranmere39%
×Draw28%
Cheltenham33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.25
Cheltenham
1.11

Tranmere creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.09
Cheltenham
1.01

allows per match

Tranmere
1.21
Cheltenham
1.41

finishing

Tranmere+0.12scores more
Cheltenham+0.09on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
67%
Tranmere or Cheltenham
72%
Draw or Cheltenham
61%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
17%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
71%
Tranmere 2+ goals
36%
Tranmere 3+ goals
13%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
67%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
30%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
55%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.09 + Cheltenham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Tranmere defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tranmere scores more
39%
level
28%
Cheltenham scores more
33%

Tranmere at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
C. HusseyCheltenhamCheltenham · M
8.3

Match Events

6'
C. Raglan↳ C. Hussey
20'
A. Williams↳ F. Azaz
36'
L. Feeney← M. Ellis
39'
P. LewisOwn goal
44'
James Vaughan
65'
E. Bonds← F. Azaz
81'
O. Banks← J. Spearing
81'
S. Payne← O. Khan
83'
L. Freestone← G. Lloyd
88'
Matty Blair
88'
Liam Sercombe
90'
Paul Lewis

Possession

44%Tranmere

Shots

8Tranmere

Pass accuracy

47%Tranmere

Statistics

TranmereCheltenham
Overview
44%Possession56%
8Total Shots9
4Corners5
17Fouls9
Shots
8Total Shots9
1On Target3
5Off Target4
2Blocked2
6Inside Box5
2Outside Box4
Passing
44%Possession56%
349Total Passes442
217Accurate Passes303
62%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls9
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

League Two: Tranmere 0–3 Cheltenham

Cheltenham beat Tranmere 3-0 in League Two on September 19, 2020.

Goals: C. Raglan (6'), A. Williams (20'), P. Lewis (39' o.g.).

Cheltenham controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at Prenton Park in Birkenhead, Merseyside.