Tranmere 0–0 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Tranmere

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cambridge United

9/27/2025

League Two · Round 10Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Tranmere26%

×Draw26%

Cambridge United49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.52

Tranmere

1.03

Cambridge United

1.52

Cambridge United creates 48% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

1.10

creates per match

1.79

1.25

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Tranmere

1.10

Cambridge United

1.79

allows per match

Tranmere

1.25

Cambridge United

0.96

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

Tranmere+0.21scores more

Cambridge United-0.50scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

51%

Tranmere or Cambridge United

74%

Draw or Cambridge United

74%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

9%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

64%

Tranmere 2+ goals

28%

Tranmere 3+ goals

9%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

78%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

45%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

35%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.96 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.10 + Cambridge United defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.03

Cambridge United attack 1.79 + Tranmere defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tranmere scores more

26%

level

26%

Cambridge United scores more

49%

Cambridge United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

J. Turnbull

Tranmere · D

7.9

Match Events

32'

Adam Mayor

46'

S. Solomon← J. Joseph

53'

Joe Ironside

57'

S. Lavery← E. Kachunga

66'

J. Davison← C. Whitaker

72'

J. Brophy← S. Kaikai

81'

C. Jennings← J. Ironside

90+2'

Dominic Ball

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TranmereCambridge

Overview

45%Possession55%

4Total Shots13

1Corners7

11Fouls12

Shots

4Total Shots13

1On Target1

2Off Target7

1Blocked5

0Inside Box7

4Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

294Total Passes342

189Accurate Passes213

64%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2