Cambridge United 0–0 Tranmere: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tranmere

9/26/2020

League Two · Round 3Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Cambridge United53%

×Draw25%

Tranmere22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.94

Cambridge United

1.61

Tranmere

0.94

Cambridge United creates 71% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.80

creates per match

1.15

0.73

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.80

Tranmere

1.15

allows per match

Cambridge United

0.73

Tranmere

1.42

+0.56scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.56scores more

Tranmere-0.06on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

78%

Cambridge United or Tranmere

75%

Draw or Tranmere

47%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

28%

Tranmere wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

80%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

48%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

22%

Tranmere 1+ goals

61%

Tranmere 2+ goals

24%

Tranmere 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

71%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.80 + Tranmere defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.61

Tranmere attack 1.15 + Cambridge United defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cambridge United scores more

53%

level

25%

Tranmere scores more

22%

Cambridge United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

D. Mitov

Cambridge United · G

7.7

Match Events

53'

Robbie Cundy

61'

I. El Mizouni← W. Hoolahan

67'

76'

79'

79'

90+1'

H. Darling← P. Mullin

90'

P. Lewis← K. Morris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeTranmere

Overview

42%Possession58%

7Total Shots15

2Corners14

12Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots15

1On Target3

4Off Target6

2Blocked6

3Inside Box9

4Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

363Total Passes466

263Accurate Passes375

72%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls10

3Yellow Cards0

0Offsides2