Tranmere 1–1 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Tranmere

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cambridge United

P. Lewis 11'

P. Mullin 60'

4/5/2021

League Two · Round 40Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Tranmere29%

×Draw27%

Cambridge United44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.35

Tranmere

1.05

Cambridge United

1.35

Cambridge United creates 29% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

1.09

creates per match

1.49

1.21

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Tranmere

1.09

Cambridge United

1.49

allows per match

Tranmere

1.21

Cambridge United

1.01

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Tranmere+0.12scores more

Cambridge United-0.31scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

56%

Tranmere or Cambridge United

73%

Draw or Cambridge United

71%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

11%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

65%

Tranmere 2+ goals

28%

Tranmere 3+ goals

9%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

74%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

39%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

40%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.09 + Cambridge United defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.05

Cambridge United attack 1.49 + Tranmere defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tranmere scores more

29%

level

27%

Cambridge United scores more

44%

Cambridge United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

J. Murphy

Tranmere · G

7.6

Match Events

11'

P. Lewis↳ D. Lloyd

21'

K. Morris← J. Spearing

60'

Peter Clarke

60'

P. Mullin

63'

A. May← L. ONeil

71'

D. Nugent← K. Woolery

76'

W. Hoolahan← L. Hannant

80'

Paul Lewis

81'

C. Taylor← D. Lloyd

90+1'

H. Dunk← P. Mullin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TranmereCambridge

Overview

58%Possession42%

11Total Shots7

7Corners2

12Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots7

3On Target5

6Off Target2

2Blocked0

9Inside Box6

2Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

446Total Passes334

296Accurate Passes184

66%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0

League Two: Tranmere 1–1 Cambridge United

Tranmere and Cambridge United drew 1-1 in League Two on April 5, 2021.

Goals: P. Lewis (11'), P. Mullin (60').

Tranmere controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Prenton Park in Birkenhead, Merseyside.

Tranmere vs Cambridge United — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Tranmere 1–1 Cambridge United