Tranmere 1–2 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Tranmere

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Bristol Rovers

J. Joseph 71'

Y. Akhamrich 84'

P. Omochere 65'

4/18/2026

League Two · Round 44Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Tranmere34%

×Draw27%

Bristol Rovers39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.27

Tranmere

1.16

Bristol Rovers

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

1.10

creates per match

1.28

1.25

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Tranmere

1.10

Bristol Rovers

1.28

allows per match

Tranmere

1.25

Bristol Rovers

1.21

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Tranmere+0.21scores more

Bristol Rovers-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

61%

Tranmere or Bristol Rovers

73%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

66%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

14%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

69%

Tranmere 2+ goals

32%

Tranmere 3+ goals

11%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

72%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

36%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

46%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.21 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.10 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Bristol Rovers attack 1.28 + Tranmere defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tranmere scores more

34%

level

27%

Bristol Rovers scores more

39%

Bristol Rovers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42

N. Kenneh

Tranmere · M

8.2

Match Events

12'

Nohan Kenneh

34'

Riley Harbottle

45+3'

P. Brough← L. O'Connor

46'

J. McEachran← T. Leigh

60'

P. Omochere← F. Cavegn

63'

Sam Finley

63'

Kofi Balmer

64'

K. Dennis← K. Woolery

64'

R. Watson← N. Kenneh

65'

P. Omochere↳ B. Young

71'

J. Joseph↳ E. Bristow

75'

Nathan James Smith

78'

Y. Akhamrich← K. Thompson-Sommers

79'

C. Whitaker← Z. Obiero

79'

E. Harrison← J. Quigley

84'

Y. Akhamrich↳ S. Forde

90+2'

Kristian Dennis

90+2'

Brad Young

90+7'

M. Rijks← S. Forde

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TranmereBristol

Overview

52%Possession48%

10Total Shots10

0.63Expected Goals (xG)0.48

5Corners2

11Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots10

3On Target4

4Off Target4

3Blocked2

4Inside Box4

6Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

325Total Passes312

197Accurate Passes203

61%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls14

4Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1