Bristol Rovers 1–4 Tranmere: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Tranmere

A. Chang 85'

J. Davison 79'

C. Jennings 73', 51'

N. Smith 33'

10/18/2025

League Two · Round 13Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Bristol Rovers38%

×Draw27%

Tranmere34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.19

Bristol Rovers

1.27

Tranmere

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.16

creates per match

1.18

1.21

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.16

Tranmere

1.18

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.21

Tranmere

1.39

+0.51scores more than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.51scores more

Tranmere-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

66%

Bristol Rovers or Tranmere

73%

Draw or Tranmere

62%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

17%

Tranmere wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

72%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

36%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

14%

Tranmere 1+ goals

70%

Tranmere 2+ goals

33%

Tranmere 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

53%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.21 · 12 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.39 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.16 + Tranmere defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tranmere attack 1.18 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

38%

level

27%

Tranmere scores more

34%

Bristol Rovers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

C. Jennings

Tranmere · F

9.0

Match Events

5'

Ellis Harrison

25'

R. Sotiriou← E. Harrison

33'

N. Smith↳ O. Patrick

46'

J. Davison← J. Ironside

51'

C. Jennings↳ A. McGowan

55'

Josh Davison

59'

S. Forde← K. Conteh

59'

B. Bilongo← J. Sparkes

68'

N. Kenneh← S. Finley

71'

Omari Patrick

73'

C. Jennings

76'

R. Smallwood← B. Blacker

76'

J. Joseph← C. Norman

79'

J. Davison↳ C. Jennings

83'

S. Solomon← C. Jennings

85'

A. Chang

90+1'

Alfie Kilgour

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolTranmere

Overview

61%Possession39%

12Total Shots20

6Corners5

13Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots20

2On Target9

5Off Target4

5Blocked7

9Inside Box13

3Outside Box7

Passing

61%Possession39%

458Total Passes286

347Accurate Passes194

76%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Bristol Rovers vs Tranmere

Tranmere beat Bristol Rovers 4-1 in League Two on October 18, 2025.

Goals: N. Smith (33'), C. Jennings (51', 73'), J. Davison (79'), A. Chang (85').

Bristol Rovers controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 20.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol.

Bristol Rovers vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bristol Rovers vs Tranmere