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Tranmere vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
K. Hemmings 56'
E. Anderson 63'
4/9/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 41Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Tranmere34%
×Draw27%
Bristol Rovers39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.18
Bristol Rovers
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.09
Bristol Rovers
1.34

allows per match

Tranmere
1.21
Bristol Rovers
1.26

finishing

Tranmere+0.12scores more
Bristol Rovers-0.11scores less

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
61%
Tranmere or Bristol Rovers
73%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
66%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
14%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
69%
Tranmere 2+ goals
33%
Tranmere 3+ goals
12%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
72%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
36%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
47%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.26 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.09 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Bristol Rovers attack 1.34 + Tranmere defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tranmere scores more
34%
level
27%
Bristol Rovers scores more
39%

Bristol Rovers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
C. MerrieTranmereTranmere · D
7.9

Match Events

56'
K. Hemmings↳ J. Murphy
60'
Kane Hemmings
60'
J. Grant← T. Clarke
60'
L. Clarke← S. Nicholson
63'
E. Anderson↳ L. Hoole
65'
Chris Merrie
70'
S. Foley← C. McManaman
76'
J. Spearing← J. Hawkes
83'
Jay Spearing

Possession

32%Tranmere

Shots

12Tranmere

Pass accuracy

40%Tranmere

Statistics

TranmereBristol
Overview
32%Possession68%
12Total Shots11
5Corners12
16Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots11
4On Target2
5Off Target4
3Blocked5
6Inside Box4
6Outside Box7
Passing
32%Possession68%
227Total Passes485
114Accurate Passes369
50%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls11
3Yellow Cards0
2Offsides0

League Two: Tranmere 1–1 Bristol Rovers

Tranmere and Bristol Rovers drew 1-1 in League Two on April 9, 2022.

Goals: K. Hemmings (56'), E. Anderson (63').

Bristol Rovers controlled possession (68%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Prenton Park in Birkenhead, Merseyside.