Trabzonspor 1–1 Samsunspor: Result & Stats

Trabzonspor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Samsunspor

P. Onuachu 16'

Marius 88'

8/31/2025

League #203 · Round 4Papara Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Trabzonspor40%

×Draw26%

Samsunspor34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrabzonsporExpected goals in this matchSamsunspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.26

Trabzonspor

1.40

Samsunspor

1.26

Trabzonspor creates 11% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.42

creates per match

1.37

1.15

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Trabzonspor

1.42

Samsunspor

1.37

allows per match

Trabzonspor

1.15

Samsunspor

1.38

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Trabzonspor+0.14scores more

Samsunspor+0.23scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trabzonspor ↓

Samsunspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Trabzonspor or draw

66%

Trabzonspor or Samsunspor

74%

Draw or Samsunspor

60%

Winning margin

Trabzonspor wins by 2+

19%

Samsunspor wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Trabzonspor 1+ goals

75%

Trabzonspor 2+ goals

41%

Trabzonspor 3+ goals

17%

Samsunspor 1+ goals

72%

Samsunspor 2+ goals

36%

Samsunspor 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)

54%

Samsunspor (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trabzonspor at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.15 · 9 matches

Samsunspor away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.38 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trabzonspor attack 1.42 + Samsunspor defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Samsunspor attack 1.37 + Trabzonspor defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Trabzonspor scores more

40%

level

26%

Samsunspor scores more

34%

Trabzonspor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Trabzonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

U. Cakir

Trabzonspor · G

8.2

Match Events

16'

P. Onuachu↳ O. Zubkov

24'

Paul Onuachu

27'

A. Bosluk← W. Pina

46'

S. Gonul← L. Tomasson

62'

O. Tufan← Felipe Augusto

64'

Paul OnuachuPenalty cancelled

64'

65'

65'

79'

82'

82'

84'

S. Aydogdu← A. Makoumbou

88'

Marius

90+6'

Marius Mouandilmadji

90+3'

Rick Van Drongelen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TrabzonsporSamsunspor

Overview

55%Possession45%

9Total Shots13

0.56Expected Goals (xG)0.98

2Corners10

7Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots13

3On Target4

3Off Target5

3Blocked4

6Inside Box6

3Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

438Total Passes341

375Accurate Passes285

86%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-0.32Goals Prevented-0.32

Discipline

7Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1

League #203: Trabzonspor 1–1 Samsunspor

Trabzonspor and Samsunspor drew 1-1 in League #203 on August 31, 2025.

Goals: P. Onuachu (16'), Marius (88').

Trabzonspor controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 13.

The match was played at Papara Park in Trabzon.

Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #203: Trabzonspor 1–1 Samsunspor