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Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor — League #203 2026

Samsunspor
Samsunspor
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Trabzonspor
Trabzonspor
E. Muci 90' (pen)
P. Onuachu 81', 23'
2/7/2026League #203League #203 · Round 21Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Samsunspor31%
×Draw23%
Trabzonspor46%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samsunspor
1.41
Trabzonspor
1.78

Trabzonspor creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Samsunspor
1.30
Trabzonspor
2.10

allows per match

Samsunspor
1.46
Trabzonspor
1.52

finishing

Samsunspor+0.13scores more
Trabzonspor+0.23scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samsunspor ↓

Trabzonspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Samsunspor or draw
54%
Samsunspor or Trabzonspor
77%
Draw or Trabzonspor
69%

Winning margin

Samsunspor wins by 2+
14%
Trabzonspor wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Samsunspor 1+ goals
76%
Samsunspor 2+ goals
41%
Samsunspor 3+ goals
17%
Trabzonspor 1+ goals
83%
Trabzonspor 2+ goals
53%
Trabzonspor 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Samsunspor (draw refunded)
40%
Trabzonspor (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samsunspor at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.46 · 7 matches

Trabzonspor away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.52 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samsunspor attack 1.30 + Trabzonspor defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.41

Trabzonspor attack 2.10 + Samsunspor defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Samsunspor scores more
31%
level
23%
Trabzonspor scores more
46%

Trabzonspor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Trabzonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44
A. BatagovTrabzonsporTrabzonspor · D
8.3

Match Events

8'
Tim Jabol-Folcarelli
23'
P. Onuachu↳ E. Muci
44'
Olivier Ntcham
46'
E. Tavsan← C. Yuksel
56'
Paul OnuachuGoal cancelled
60'
S. Gonul← L. Tomasson
60'
J. Mendes← J. Assoumou
72'
Marius← O. Ntcham
72'
U. Nayir← Felipe Augusto
81'
P. Onuachu↳ U. Nayir
88'
O. Tufan← W. Pina
88'
O. Yokuslu← P. Onuachu
90+5'
Antoine Makoumbou
90+5'
A. Nwakaeme← M. Eskihellac
90'
E. MuciPenalty

Possession

52%Samsunspor

Shots

11Samsunspor

Pass accuracy

49%Samsunspor

Statistics

SamsunsporTrabzonspor
Overview
52%Possession48%
11Total Shots17
0.69Expected Goals (xG)2.74
8Corners1
14Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots17
0On Target9
6Off Target5
5Blocked3
8Inside Box9
3Outside Box8
Passing
52%Possession48%
450Total Passes420
391Accurate Passes372
87%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
6Saves0
0.00Goals Prevented0.00
Discipline
14Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

League #203: Samsunspor 0–3 Trabzonspor

Trabzonspor beat Samsunspor 3-0 in League #203 on February 7, 2026.

Goals: P. Onuachu (23', 81'), E. Muci (90' pen).

Samsunspor controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 17.

The match was played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu in Samsun.