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Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor — League #203 2026

Samsunspor
Samsunspor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Trabzonspor
Trabzonspor
C. Holse 75', 30'
S. Banza 49'
1/4/2025League #203League #203 · Round 18Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Samsunspor36%
×Draw24%
Trabzonspor40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samsunspor
1.53
Trabzonspor
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Samsunspor
1.43
Trabzonspor
1.88

allows per match

Samsunspor
1.35
Trabzonspor
1.64

finishing

Samsunspor+0.07on par
Trabzonspor+0.26scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samsunspor ↓

Trabzonspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Samsunspor or draw
60%
Samsunspor or Trabzonspor
76%
Draw or Trabzonspor
64%

Winning margin

Samsunspor wins by 2+
17%
Trabzonspor wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Samsunspor 1+ goals
78%
Samsunspor 2+ goals
45%
Samsunspor 3+ goals
20%
Trabzonspor 1+ goals
80%
Trabzonspor 2+ goals
48%
Trabzonspor 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Samsunspor (draw refunded)
48%
Trabzonspor (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samsunspor at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.35 · 8 matches

Trabzonspor away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.64 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samsunspor attack 1.43 + Trabzonspor defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.53

Trabzonspor attack 1.88 + Samsunspor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Samsunspor scores more
36%
level
24%
Trabzonspor scores more
40%

Trabzonspor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Trabzonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
C. HolseSamsunsporSamsunspor · M
8.9

Match Events

22'
Ozan Tufan
30'
C. Holse↳ Y. Bennasser
38'
Emre Kılınç
49'
S. Banza↳ M. Cham
69'
A. Muja← K. Schindler
73'
U. Güneş← C. Çanak
75'
C. Holse↳ M. Mouandilmadji
77'
E. Destan← O. Tufan
86'
M. Bola← E. Kılınç
90+1'
S. Aydoğdu← C. Yüksel
90+1'
A. Boşluk← E. Elmalı
90+1'
P. Yıldırım← M. Cham

Possession

36%Samsunspor

Shots

9Samsunspor

Pass accuracy

45%Samsunspor

Statistics

SamsunsporTrabzonspor
Overview
36%Possession64%
9Total Shots14
2.33Expected Goals (xG)0.54
2Corners8
7Fouls8
Shots
9Total Shots14
3On Target5
6Off Target6
0Blocked3
7Inside Box7
2Outside Box7
Passing
36%Possession64%
273Total Passes490
182Accurate Passes404
67%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
-0.40Goals Prevented-0.40
Discipline
7Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor

Samsunspor beat Trabzonspor 2-1 in League #203 on January 4, 2025.

Goals: C. Holse (30', 75'), S. Banza (49').

Trabzonspor controlled possession (64%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Samsun.