Trabzonspor 4–2 Ankaragücü: Result & Stats

Trabzonspor

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ankaragücü

E. Destan 90+7' (pen), 90', 87'

E. Višća 63'

A. Sowe 78'

T. Chatzigiovanis 25' (pen)

5/26/2024

League #203 · Round 38Papara Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Trabzonspor43%

×Draw27%

Ankaragücü31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrabzonsporExpected goals in this matchAnkaragücü

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.13

Trabzonspor

1.39

Ankaragücü

1.13

Trabzonspor creates 23% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

1.09

1.16

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Trabzonspor

1.50

Ankaragücü

1.09

allows per match

Trabzonspor

1.16

Ankaragücü

1.28

+0.64scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Trabzonspor+0.64scores more

Ankaragücü+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trabzonspor ↓

Ankaragücü →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Trabzonspor or draw

69%

Trabzonspor or Ankaragücü

73%

Draw or Ankaragücü

57%

Winning margin

Trabzonspor wins by 2+

20%

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Trabzonspor 1+ goals

75%

Trabzonspor 2+ goals

40%

Trabzonspor 3+ goals

16%

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

68%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

31%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)

58%

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trabzonspor at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.16 · 14 matches

Ankaragücü away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trabzonspor attack 1.50 + Ankaragücü defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

Ankaragücü attack 1.09 + Trabzonspor defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Trabzonspor scores more

43%

level

27%

Ankaragücü scores more

31%

Trabzonspor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Trabzonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

94

E. Destan

Trabzonspor · F

9.6

Match Events

19'

K. Şen← E. Bardhi

22'

Rayyan Baniya

25'

T. ChatzigiovanisPenalty

54'

61'

63'

68'

78'

K. Karataş← A. Çankaya

78'

E. Bekiroğlu← R. Saponara

78'

A. Sowe↳ N. Mujakić

83'

U. Bozok← K. Şen

83'

A. Boşluk← E. Elmalı

83'

T. Fountas← Trézéguet

83'

R. Cephas← C. Bassogog

83'

86'

87'

88'

90+4'

90'

90+7'

E. DestanPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TrabzonsporAnkaragücü

Overview

59%Possession41%

12Total Shots15

1.75Expected Goals (xG)1.96

3Corners6

6Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots15

5On Target8

4Off Target5

3Blocked2

6Inside Box8

6Outside Box7

Passing

59%Possession41%

534Total Passes374

466Accurate Passes297

87%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

-2.19Goals Prevented-2.19

Discipline

6Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3