Trabzonspor 2–0 Ankaragücü: Result & Stats

Trabzonspor

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ankaragücü

U. Bozok 62', 45+1'

5/8/2023

League #203 · Round 33Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Trabzonspor63%

×Draw20%

Ankaragücü17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrabzonsporExpected goals in this matchAnkaragücü

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.02

Trabzonspor

2.17

Ankaragücü

1.02

Trabzonspor creates 113% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 10 away

2.24

creates per match

1.00

1.04

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Trabzonspor

2.24

Ankaragücü

1.00

allows per match

Trabzonspor

1.04

Ankaragücü

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trabzonspor+0.00on par

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trabzonspor ↓

Ankaragücü →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Trabzonspor or draw

83%

Trabzonspor or Ankaragücü

80%

Draw or Ankaragücü

37%

Winning margin

Trabzonspor wins by 2+

40%

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Trabzonspor 1+ goals

89%

Trabzonspor 2+ goals

64%

Trabzonspor 3+ goals

36%

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

64%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

27%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)

79%

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trabzonspor at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

Ankaragücü away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trabzonspor attack 2.24 + Ankaragücü defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.17

Ankaragücü attack 1.00 + Trabzonspor defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Trabzonspor scores more

63%

level

20%

Ankaragücü scores more

17%

Trabzonspor at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Trabzonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

U. Bozok

Trabzonspor · F

8.7

Match Events

8'

Doğucan Haspolat

10'

Stelios Kitsiou

45+1'

U. Bozok↳ Marc Bartra

46'

L. Diack← G. Zahid

48'

Taylan Antalyalı

56'

G. Beridze← A. Çankaya

62'

U. Bozok↳ D. Haspolat

66'

E. Višća← A. Boşluk

74'

A. Ömür← M. Hamšík

74'

J. Gbamin← M. Gómez

77'

T. Chatzigiovanis← T. Antalyalı

77'

F. Üzüm← G. Beridze

87'

Pedrinho← E. Kılınç

90'

S. Asan← J. Stryger Larsen

90'

L. Marković← U. Bozok

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TrabzonsporAnkaragücü

Overview

62%Possession38%

14Total Shots3

5Corners4

14Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots3

4On Target0

8Off Target2

2Blocked1

4Inside Box1

10Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

603Total Passes378

521Accurate Passes273

86%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Trabzonspor vs Ankaragücü

Trabzonspor beat Ankaragücü 2-0 in League #203 on May 8, 2023.

Goals: U. Bozok (45+1', 62').

Trabzonspor controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 3.

The match was played at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi in Trabzon.

Trabzonspor vs Ankaragücü — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Trabzonspor vs Ankaragücü