Ankaragücü 3–1 Trabzonspor: Result & Stats

Ankaragücü

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Trabzonspor

A. Sowe 83', 51'

L. Diack 68'

A. Ömür 22'

4/4/2023

Türkiye Kupası · Quarter-finalsEryaman Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ankaragücü44%

×Draw21%

Trabzonspor34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnkaragücüExpected goals in this matchTrabzonspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.76

Ankaragücü

2.01

Trabzonspor

1.76

Ankaragücü creates 14% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

2.39

creates per match

2.63

0.89

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Ankaragücü

2.39

Trabzonspor

2.63

allows per match

Ankaragücü

0.89

Trabzonspor

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ankaragücü+0.00on par

Trabzonspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ankaragücü ↓

Trabzonspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Ankaragücü or draw

66%

Ankaragücü or Trabzonspor

79%

Draw or Trabzonspor

56%

Winning margin

Ankaragücü wins by 2+

25%

Trabzonspor wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Ankaragücü 1+ goals

87%

Ankaragücü 2+ goals

59%

Ankaragücü 3+ goals

32%

Trabzonspor 1+ goals

83%

Trabzonspor 2+ goals

52%

Trabzonspor 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Ankaragücü (draw refunded)

56%

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ankaragücü at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Trabzonspor away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ankaragücü attack 2.39 + Trabzonspor defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.01

Trabzonspor attack 2.63 + Ankaragücü defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ankaragücü scores more

44%

level

21%

Trabzonspor scores more

34%

Ankaragücü at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ankaragücü will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

33'

35'

39'

46'

46'

L. Diack← A. Đokanović

51'

A. Sowe

65'

E. Bardhi← E. Višća

68'

L. Diack↳ G. Zahid

71'

A. Bakasetas← L. Marković

72'

T. Chatzigiovanis← G. Zahid

72'

E. Elmalı← J. Stryger Larsen

77'

Stefano Denswil

78'

M. Hamšík← D. Haspolat

78'

U. Bozok← A. Ömür

83'

A. Sowe↳ T. Chatzigiovanis

87'

A. Kızıldağ← M. Hanousek

89'

89'

89'

90'

90'

Statistics

AnkaragücüTrabzonspor

Overview

8Corners1

Discipline

3Yellow Cards5

Türkiye Kupası: Ankaragücü 3–1 Trabzonspor

Ankaragücü beat Trabzonspor 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on April 4, 2023.

Goals: A. Ömür (22'), A. Sowe (51', 83'), L. Diack (68').

The match was played at Eryaman Stadyumu in Ankara.

Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Türkiye Kupası: Ankaragücü 3–1 Trabzonspor