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Toulouse vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

Toulouse
Toulouse
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Niort
Niort
R. Healey 79'
B. van den Boomen 9'
P. Bâ 7'
11/28/2020Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 12Stadium de Toulouse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Toulouse66%
×Draw20%
Niort14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toulouse
2.04
Niort
0.82

Toulouse creates 149% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 94 away

creates per match

Toulouse
2.54
Niort
0.83

allows per match

Toulouse
0.82
Niort
1.55

finishing

Toulouse+0.00on par
Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toulouse ↓

Niort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Toulouse or draw
86%
Toulouse or Niort
80%
Draw or Niort
34%

Winning margin

Toulouse wins by 2+
41%
Niort wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Toulouse 1+ goals
87%
Toulouse 2+ goals
60%
Toulouse 3+ goals
33%
Niort 1+ goals
56%
Niort 2+ goals
20%
Niort 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Toulouse (draw refunded)
82%
Niort (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toulouse at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.82 · 39 matches

Niort away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.55 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toulouse attack 2.54 + Niort defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.04

Niort attack 0.83 + Toulouse defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Toulouse scores more
66%
level
20%
Niort scores more
14%

Toulouse at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Toulouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
B. van den BoomenToulouseToulouse · M
8.5

Match Events

7'
P. Bâ↳ J. Moutachy
9'
B. van den Boomen↳ S. Moreira
64'
O. Kemen← D. Louiserre
67'
V. Bayo← J. Antiste
78'
Vakoun Issouf Bayo
79'
R. Healey↳ B. van den Boomen
81'
B. Dejaegere← A. Adli
81'
A. Rouault← B. van den Boomen
82'
B. Boutobba← B. Doukansy
88'
B. Konaté← G. Kilama
90'
Olivier Kemen

Possession

55%Toulouse

Shots

9Toulouse

Pass accuracy

52%Toulouse

Statistics

ToulouseNiort
Overview
55%Possession45%
9Total Shots10
2Corners5
14Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots10
4On Target2
3Off Target6
2Blocked2
4Inside Box6
5Outside Box4
Passing
55%Possession45%
460Total Passes364
383Accurate Passes285
83%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls15
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Ligue 2: Toulouse 2–1 Niort

Toulouse beat Niort 2-1 in Ligue 2 on November 28, 2020.

Goals: P. Bâ (7'), B. van den Boomen (9'), R. Healey (79').

Toulouse controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadium de Toulouse in Toulouse.