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Niort vs Toulouse — Ligue 2 2018

Niort
Niort
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Toulouse
Toulouse
P. Bâ 87'
3/20/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 30Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Niort30%
×Draw27%
Toulouse44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niort
1.10
Toulouse
1.39

Toulouse creates 26% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 38 away

creates per match

Niort
1.08
Toulouse
1.50

allows per match

Niort
1.28
Toulouse
1.13

finishing

Niort+0.00on par
Toulouse+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Toulouse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Niort or draw
56%
Niort or Toulouse
73%
Draw or Toulouse
70%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+
12%
Toulouse wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals
67%
Niort 2+ goals
30%
Niort 3+ goals
10%
Toulouse 1+ goals
75%
Toulouse 2+ goals
40%
Toulouse 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)
41%
Toulouse (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.28 · 96 matches

Toulouse away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.08 + Toulouse defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Toulouse attack 1.50 + Niort defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Niort scores more
30%
level
27%
Toulouse scores more
44%

Toulouse at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Toulouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
J. MoutachyNiortNiort · D
8.0

Match Events

14'
Guy-Marcelin Kilama
61'
K. Koné← S. Spierings
61'
R. Healey← B. van den Boomen
63'
Joris Moutachy
73'
Olivier Kemen
78'
L. Vallier← V. Jacob
83'
T. Lebeau← B. Boutobba
85'
J. Antiste← S. Dewaest
87'
P. Bâ↳ B. Passi
90'
Steven Moreira
90+2'
B. Doukansy← Y. Bourhane

Possession

42%Niort

Shots

13Niort

Pass accuracy

47%Niort

Statistics

NiortToulouse
Overview
42%Possession58%
13Total Shots10
2Corners5
19Fouls22
Shots
13Total Shots10
2On Target2
6Off Target5
5Blocked3
8Inside Box7
5Outside Box3
Passing
42%Possession58%
298Total Passes407
175Accurate Passes270
59%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
19Fouls22
3Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1
2Offsides7

Match Recap: Niort vs Toulouse

Niort beat Toulouse 1-0 in Ligue 2 on March 20, 2021.

Goals: P. Bâ (87').

Toulouse controlled possession (58%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard in Niort.