Niort 2–1 Toulouse: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Niort

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Toulouse

M. Zemzemi 62'

I. Sissoko 50'

Rafael Ratão 76'

12/6/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 17Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Niort30%

×Draw27%

Toulouse44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiortExpected goals in this matchToulouse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.39

Niort

1.10

Toulouse

1.39

Toulouse creates 26% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 38 away

1.08

creates per match

1.50

1.28

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Niort

1.08

Toulouse

1.50

allows per match

Niort

1.28

Toulouse

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niort+0.00on par

Toulouse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Toulouse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Niort or draw

56%

Niort or Toulouse

73%

Draw or Toulouse

70%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+

12%

Toulouse wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals

67%

Niort 2+ goals

30%

Niort 3+ goals

10%

Toulouse 1+ goals

75%

Toulouse 2+ goals

40%

Toulouse 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)

41%

Toulouse (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.28 · 96 matches

Toulouse away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.08 + Toulouse defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Toulouse attack 1.50 + Niort defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Niort scores more

30%

level

27%

Toulouse scores more

44%

Toulouse at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Toulouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

Q. Braat

Niort · G

8.3

Match Events

50'

I. Sissoko↳ Y. Cassubie

59'

Rafael Ratão← A. Onaiwu

62'

M. Zemzemi↳ J. Moutachy

66'

Y. Begraoui← N. Skyttä

66'

D. Genreau← B. Dejaegere

76'

Rafael Ratão↳ S. Spierings

80'

S. Renel← B. Boutobba

80'

S. Benchamma← Y. Cassubie

81'

Ibrahima Sory Conté

90'

Denis Genreau

90+1'

L. Vallier← Y. Merdji

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiortToulouse

Overview

40%Possession60%

14Total Shots23

3Corners7

11Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots23

5On Target8

6Off Target9

3Blocked6

7Inside Box18

7Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

360Total Passes521

274Accurate Passes433

76%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0