Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Toulouse vs Niort — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Toulouse
Toulouse
FT
1 – 2
Niort
Niort
8/15/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stade Alain-Roche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Toulouse47%
×Draw22%
Niort31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toulouse
1.88
Niort
1.50

Toulouse creates 25% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Toulouse
3.00
Niort
1.00

allows per match

Toulouse
2.00
Niort
0.75

finishing

Toulouse+0.00on par
Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toulouse ↓

Niort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Toulouse or draw
69%
Toulouse or Niort
78%
Draw or Niort
53%

Winning margin

Toulouse wins by 2+
26%
Niort wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Toulouse 1+ goals
85%
Toulouse 2+ goals
56%
Toulouse 3+ goals
29%
Niort 1+ goals
78%
Niort 2+ goals
44%
Niort 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Toulouse (draw refunded)
60%
Niort (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toulouse at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Niort away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toulouse attack 3.00 + Niort defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Niort attack 1.00 + Toulouse defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Toulouse scores more
47%
level
22%
Niort scores more
31%

Toulouse at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Toulouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Toulouse 1–2 Niort

Niort beat Toulouse 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Alain-Roche in Villenave d'Ornon.