Toulouse 1–3 Marseille: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Toulouse

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Marseille

S. Babicka 90'

C. Cresswell 52' (OG)

M. Greenwood 17', 16'

8/31/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 3Stadium de Toulouse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Toulouse42%

×Draw25%

Marseille33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ToulouseExpected goals in this matchMarseille

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.33

Toulouse

1.52

Marseille

1.33

Toulouse creates 14% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 22 away

1.45

creates per match

1.57

1.09

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Toulouse

1.45

Marseille

1.57

allows per match

Toulouse

1.09

Marseille

1.58

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Toulouse-0.04on par

Marseille-0.02on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toulouse ↓

Marseille →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Toulouse or draw

67%

Toulouse or Marseille

75%

Draw or Marseille

58%

Winning margin

Toulouse wins by 2+

21%

Marseille wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Toulouse 1+ goals

78%

Toulouse 2+ goals

45%

Toulouse 3+ goals

20%

Marseille 1+ goals

74%

Marseille 2+ goals

38%

Marseille 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Toulouse (draw refunded)

56%

Marseille (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toulouse at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.09 · 27 matches

Marseille away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.58 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toulouse attack 1.45 + Marseille defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Marseille attack 1.57 + Toulouse defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Toulouse scores more

42%

level

25%

Marseille scores more

33%

Toulouse at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Toulouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Greenwood

Marseille · M

8.6

Match Events

10'

Pierre-Emile Højbjerg

16'

M. Greenwood↳ Luis Henrique

17'

M. Greenwood↳ Luis Henrique

27'

Frank Magri

44'

Cristian Cásseres Jr.

49'

Aron Dønnum

52'

C. CresswellOwn goal

62'

S. Babicka← C. Cásseres

62'

D. Sidibé← C. Cresswell

63'

W. Kamanzi← Z. Aboukhlal

66'

J. Rowe← Luis Henrique

66'

73'

73'

76'

76'

76'

82'

86'

B. Meïté← P. Højbjerg

86'

V. Rongier← G. Kondogbia

90'

S. Babicka↳ D. Sidibé

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ToulouseMarseille

Overview

24%Possession76%

3Total Shots12

0.99Expected Goals (xG)0.84

2Corners3

10Fouls15

Shots

3Total Shots12

1On Target4

2Off Target3

0Blocked5

2Inside Box9

1Outside Box3

Passing

24%Possession76%

271Total Passes877

204Accurate Passes814

75%Pass Accuracy93%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

-0.00Goals Prevented-0.00

Discipline

10Fouls15

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0