Marseille 3–2 Toulouse: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Marseille

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Toulouse

A. Rabiot 64'

M. Greenwood 57'

G. Suazo 21' (OG)

V. Sierro 76'

F. Magri 28'

4/6/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 28Orange Vélodrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Marseille47%

×Draw24%

Toulouse29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MarseilleExpected goals in this matchToulouse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.27

Marseille

1.67

Toulouse

1.27

Marseille creates 31% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 26 away

1.95

creates per match

1.26

1.29

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Marseille

1.95

Toulouse

1.26

allows per match

Marseille

1.29

Toulouse

1.39

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Marseille+0.47scores more

Toulouse+0.24scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marseille ↓

Toulouse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Marseille or draw

71%

Marseille or Toulouse

76%

Draw or Toulouse

53%

Winning margin

Marseille wins by 2+

25%

Toulouse wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Marseille 1+ goals

81%

Marseille 2+ goals

50%

Marseille 3+ goals

23%

Toulouse 1+ goals

72%

Toulouse 2+ goals

36%

Toulouse 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Marseille (draw refunded)

62%

Toulouse (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marseille at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Toulouse away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marseille attack 1.95 + Toulouse defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.67

Toulouse attack 1.26 + Marseille defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Marseille scores more

47%

level

24%

Toulouse scores more

29%

Marseille at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Marseille will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

A. Rabiot

Marseille · F

7.9

Match Events

21'

G. SuazoOwn goal

24'

28'

32'

56'

56'

56'

Pol Lirola← D. Cornelius

57'

M. Greenwood↳ I. Bennacer

64'

A. Rabiot

68'

Cristian Cásseres Jr.

75'

J. King← Y. Gboho

75'

J. Canvot← D. Sidibé

75'

N. Edjouma← S. Babicka

76'

U. Garcia← Q. Merlin

76'

V. Sierro↳ C. Cásseres

90+5'

Bilal Nadir

90+1'

A. Dedić← M. Greenwood

90+1'

B. Nadir← I. Bennacer

90+1'

W. Kamanzi← C. Cresswell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MarseilleToulouse

Overview

67%Possession33%

9Total Shots8

1.01Expected Goals (xG)1.23

5Corners1

11Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots8

4On Target3

3Off Target5

2Blocked0

7Inside Box5

2Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

617Total Passes301

554Accurate Passes251

90%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-2.33Goals Prevented-2.33

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Marseille vs Toulouse

Marseille beat Toulouse 3-2 in Ligue 1 on April 6, 2025.

Goals: G. Suazo (21' o.g.), F. Magri (28'), M. Greenwood (57'), A. Rabiot (64'), V. Sierro (76').

Marseille controlled possession (67%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at Orange Vélodrome in Marseille.

Marseille vs Toulouse — Ligue 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Marseille vs Toulouse