Tottenham 5–1 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Stoke City

C. Eriksen 74'

H. Kane 65', 54'

Son Heung-Min 53'

R. Shawcross 21' (OG)

R. Shawcross 80'

12/9/2017

Premier League · Round 16Wembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Tottenham55%

×Draw24%

Stoke City21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.99

Tottenham

1.75

Stoke City

0.99

Tottenham creates 77% more chances

Season form · 198 home / 74 away

1.89

creates per match

0.91

1.07

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Tottenham

1.89

Stoke City

0.91

allows per match

Tottenham

1.07

Stoke City

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tottenham+0.00on par

Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

79%

Tottenham or Stoke City

76%

Draw or Stoke City

45%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

31%

Stoke City wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

83%

Tottenham 2+ goals

52%

Tottenham 3+ goals

25%

Stoke City 1+ goals

63%

Stoke City 2+ goals

26%

Stoke City 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

72%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.07 · 198 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.61 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.89 + Stoke City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.75

Stoke City attack 0.91 + Tottenham defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tottenham scores more

55%

level

24%

Stoke City scores more

21%

Tottenham at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Son Heung-Min

Tottenham · M

9.6

Match Events

21'

R. ShawcrossOwn goal

53'

Son Heung-Min↳ D. Alli

54'

65'

66'

67'

70'

P. Crouch← T. Edwards

74'

C. Eriksen↳ Son Heung-Min

75'

G. Cameron← X. Shaqiri

78'

M. Sissoko← H. Winks

80'

I. Afellay← J. Allen

80'

R. Shawcross↳ D. Fletcher

86'

Llorente← Son Heung-Min

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamStoke

Overview

70%Possession30%

20Total Shots4

12Corners6

12Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots4

11On Target3

6Off Target1

3Blocked0

13Inside Box4

8Outside Box0

Passing

70%Possession30%

657Total Passes268

579Accurate Passes172

88%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

12Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

7Offsides2