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Tottenham vs Stoke City — Premier League 2026

Tottenham
Tottenham
FT
4 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Stoke City
Stoke City
2/26/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26White Hart Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Tottenham55%
×Draw24%
Stoke City21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tottenham
1.75
Stoke City
0.99

Tottenham creates 77% more chances

Season form · 198 home / 74 away

creates per match

Tottenham
1.89
Stoke City
0.91

allows per match

Tottenham
1.07
Stoke City
1.61

finishing

Tottenham+0.00on par
Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw
79%
Tottenham or Stoke City
76%
Draw or Stoke City
45%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+
31%
Stoke City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals
83%
Tottenham 2+ goals
52%
Tottenham 3+ goals
25%
Stoke City 1+ goals
63%
Stoke City 2+ goals
26%
Stoke City 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)
72%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.07 · 198 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.61 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.89 + Stoke City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.75

Stoke City attack 0.91 + Tottenham defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tottenham scores more
55%
level
24%
Stoke City scores more
21%

Tottenham at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tottenham vs Stoke City

Tottenham beat Stoke City 4-0 in Premier League on February 26, 2017.

The match was played at White Hart Lane in London.