Stoke City 0–4 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Stoke City

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Tottenham

D. Alli 82', 67'

H. Kane 71', 9'

4/18/2016

Premier League · Round 34bet365 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Stoke City34%

×Draw25%

Tottenham41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stoke CityExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.47

Stoke City

1.32

Tottenham

1.47

Tottenham creates 11% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 202 away

1.31

creates per match

1.63

1.31

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Stoke City

1.31

Tottenham

1.63

allows per match

Stoke City

1.31

Tottenham

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stoke City+0.00on par

Tottenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stoke City ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Stoke City or draw

59%

Stoke City or Tottenham

75%

Draw or Tottenham

66%

Winning margin

Stoke City wins by 2+

15%

Tottenham wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

73%

Stoke City 2+ goals

38%

Stoke City 3+ goals

15%

Tottenham 1+ goals

77%

Tottenham 2+ goals

43%

Tottenham 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Stoke City (draw refunded)

45%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stoke City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 72 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.33 · 202 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stoke City attack 1.31 + Tottenham defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Tottenham attack 1.63 + Stoke City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stoke City scores more

34%

level

25%

Tottenham scores more

41%

Tottenham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

H. Kane

Tottenham · F

8.8

Match Events

9'

46'

61'

67'

71'

76'

79'

82'

84'

87'

90'

Heung-Min Son← E. Lamela

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StokeTottenham

Overview

51%Possession49%

12Total Shots23

5Corners3

0Fouls0

Shots

12Total Shots23

2On Target6

6Off Target13

4Blocked4

6Inside Box17

6Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

410Total Passes396

322Accurate Passes314

79%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

0Fouls0

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1