Tottenham 2–3 Southampton: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Southampton

Son Heung-Min 70'

J. Bednarek 18' (OG)

C. Adams 82'

M. Elyounoussi 80'

A. Broja 23'

2/9/2022

Premier League · Round 24Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 168+ matches

Tottenham53%

×Draw23%

Southampton23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.08

Tottenham

1.77

Southampton

1.08

Tottenham creates 64% more chances

Season form · 197 home / 168 away

1.89

creates per match

1.08

1.07

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Tottenham

1.89

Southampton

1.08

allows per match

Tottenham

1.07

Southampton

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tottenham+0.00on par

Southampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

77%

Tottenham or Southampton

77%

Draw or Southampton

47%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

30%

Southampton wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

83%

Tottenham 2+ goals

53%

Tottenham 3+ goals

26%

Southampton 1+ goals

66%

Southampton 2+ goals

29%

Southampton 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

70%

Southampton (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.07 · 197 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.65 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.89 + Southampton defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.77

Southampton attack 1.08 + Tottenham defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tottenham scores more

53%

level

23%

Southampton scores more

23%

Tottenham at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Ward-Prowse

Southampton · M

8.9

Match Events

18'

J. BednarekOwn goal

23'

A. Broja↳ R. Perraud

59'

Davinson Sánchez

60'

R. Bentancur← P. Højbjerg

70'

Son Heung-Min↳ Lucas Moura

76'

Romain Perraud

76'

D. Kulusevski← Lucas Moura

77'

Oriol Romeu

80'

M. Elyounoussi↳ J. Ward-Prowse

82'

C. Adams↳ J. Ward-Prowse

83'

S. Bergwijn← Reguilón

84'

Fraser Forster

88'

S. Long← C. Adams

90+3'

Cristian Romero

90+4'

Steven BergwijnGoal cancelled

90+7'

I. Diallo← M. Elyounoussi

90'

T. Walcott← A. Broja

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamSouthampton

Overview

48%Possession52%

8Total Shots23

2Corners8

7Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots23

3On Target10

2Off Target10

3Blocked3

6Inside Box15

2Outside Box8

Passing

48%Possession52%

433Total Passes472

347Accurate Passes387

80%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1