Southampton 1–1 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Southampton

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tottenham

J. Ward-Prowse 25'

H. Kane 41' (pen)

12/28/2021

Premier League · Round 20St. Mary's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Southampton33%

×Draw24%

Tottenham43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.63

Southampton

1.38

Tottenham

1.63

Tottenham creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 34 away

1.13

creates per match

1.12

2.13

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Southampton

1.13

Tottenham

1.12

allows per match

Southampton

2.13

Tottenham

1.62

+0.37scores more than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Southampton+0.37scores more

Tottenham+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

57%

Southampton or Tottenham

76%

Draw or Tottenham

67%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

15%

Tottenham wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

75%

Southampton 2+ goals

40%

Southampton 3+ goals

16%

Tottenham 1+ goals

80%

Tottenham 2+ goals

48%

Tottenham 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

43%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 6 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.13 + Tottenham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.38

Tottenham attack 1.12 + Southampton defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Southampton scores more

33%

level

24%

Tottenham scores more

43%

Tottenham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44

F. Forster

Southampton · G

8.3

Match Events

13'

25'

27'

39'

39'

41'

H. KanePenalty

45+1'

Sergio Reguilón

46'

M. Doherty← Reguilón

51'

Adam Armstrong

53'

Harry KaneGoal cancelled

62'

Lucas Moura← D. Alli

69'

Harry Winks

71'

A. Broja← S. Long

77'

Bryan Gil← Emerson

83'

N. Redmond← A. Armstrong

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonTottenham

Overview

35%Possession65%

9Total Shots21

3Corners7

15Fouls5

Shots

9Total Shots21

2On Target11

3Off Target5

4Blocked5

4Inside Box14

5Outside Box7

Passing

35%Possession65%

290Total Passes536

201Accurate Passes452

69%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

10Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls5

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

3Offsides3