Southampton 3–3 Tottenham: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SouthamptonExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.50

Southampton

1.34

Tottenham

1.50

Tottenham creates 12% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 205 away

1.35

creates per match

1.63

1.36

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Southampton

1.35

Tottenham

1.63

allows per match

Southampton

1.36

Tottenham

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Southampton+0.00on par

Tottenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Southampton ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Southampton or draw

59%

Southampton or Tottenham

75%

Draw or Tottenham

66%

Winning margin

Southampton wins by 2+

15%

Tottenham wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Southampton 1+ goals

74%

Southampton 2+ goals

39%

Southampton 3+ goals

15%

Tottenham 1+ goals

78%

Tottenham 2+ goals

44%

Tottenham 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Southampton (draw refunded)

45%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Southampton at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.36 · 173 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.33 · 205 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Southampton attack 1.35 + Tottenham defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.34

Tottenham attack 1.63 + Southampton defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Southampton scores more

34%

level

25%

Tottenham scores more

41%

Tottenham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Ward-Prowse

Southampton · M

8.3

Match Events

5'

D. Kulusevski← Richarlison

7'

M. Salisu← A. Bella-Kotchap

34'

A. Maitland-Niles← J. Bednarek

37'

I. Perišić← B. Davies

45+1'

Pedro Porro↳ Son Heung-Min

46'

C. Adams↳ T. Walcott

55'

Ivan PerišićPenalty cancelled

65'

H. Kane↳ D. Kulusevski

70'

K. Sulemana← M. Elyounoussi

70'

S. Mara← C. Adams

70'

C. Alcaraz← S. Armstrong

74'

I. Perišić

77'

T. Walcott↳ S. Mara

85'

Oliver Skipp

86'

P. Sarr← D. Kulusevski

86'

Emerson← Pedro Porro

87'

Kamaldeen Sulemana

90+1'

Ainsley Maitland-NilesPenalty confirmed

90+3'

J. Ward-ProwsePenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SouthamptonTottenham

Overview

50%Possession50%

19Total Shots17

2.51Expected Goals (xG)2.27

10Corners3

13Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots17

7On Target3

7Off Target9

5Blocked5

11Inside Box11

8Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

457Total Passes450

388Accurate Passes377

85%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1