Tottenham 2–1 Southampton: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Southampton

H. Kane 43'

T. Ndombèlé 24'

D. Ings 39'

9/28/2019

Premier League · Round 7Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Tottenham52%

×Draw24%

Southampton24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.10

Tottenham

1.73

Southampton

1.10

Tottenham creates 57% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 9 away

1.47

creates per match

0.95

1.26

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Tottenham

1.47

Southampton

0.95

allows per match

Tottenham

1.26

Southampton

1.99

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Tottenham+0.05on par

Southampton-0.06on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

76%

Tottenham or Southampton

76%

Draw or Southampton

48%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

28%

Southampton wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

82%

Tottenham 2+ goals

52%

Tottenham 3+ goals

25%

Southampton 1+ goals

67%

Southampton 2+ goals

30%

Southampton 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

68%

Southampton (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 40 matches

Southampton away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.99 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.47 + Southampton defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.73

Southampton attack 0.95 + Tottenham defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tottenham scores more

52%

level

24%

Southampton scores more

24%

Tottenham at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

T. Ndombèlé

Tottenham · M

7.7

Match Events

24'

T. Ndombèlé↳ Son Heung-Min

27'

31'

31'

39'

43'

64'

E. Lamela← Son Heung-Min

68'

Maya Yoshida

78'

E. Dier← T. Ndombèlé

79'

S. Armstrong← J. Vestergaard

82'

83'

88'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamSouthampton

Overview

41%Possession59%

9Total Shots14

6Corners6

5Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots14

4On Target6

3Off Target6

2Blocked2

6Inside Box8

3Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

369Total Passes518

290Accurate Passes447

79%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

5Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1