Tottenham 2–2 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Manchester City

D. Solanke 70', 53'

A. Semenyo 44'

R. Cherki 11'

2/1/2026

Premier League · Round 24Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Tottenham33%

×Draw25%

Manchester City42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.54

Tottenham

1.32

Manchester City

1.54

Manchester City creates 17% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 30 away

1.47

creates per match

1.77

1.30

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Tottenham

1.47

Manchester City

1.77

allows per match

Tottenham

1.30

Manchester City

1.18

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.04on par

Manchester City-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

58%

Tottenham or Manchester City

75%

Draw or Manchester City

67%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

14%

Manchester City wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

73%

Tottenham 2+ goals

38%

Tottenham 3+ goals

15%

Manchester City 1+ goals

79%

Manchester City 2+ goals

45%

Manchester City 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

43%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.18 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.47 + Manchester City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Manchester City attack 1.77 + Tottenham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tottenham scores more

33%

level

25%

Manchester City scores more

42%

Manchester City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Yves Bissouma

11'

R. Cherki↳ E. Haaland

21'

38'

44'

45+3'

46'

P. M. Sarr← C. Romero

48'

Dominic Solanke

53'

D. Solanke↳ X. Simons

68'

M. Tel← R. Kolo Muani

68'

W. Odobert← Y. Bissouma

69'

T. Reijnders← R. Cherki

70'

Nico← R. Ait-Nouri

70'

D. Solanke↳ C. Gallagher

88'

P. Foden← B. Silva

90+8'

Nico González

90'

J. Byfield← D. Solanke

90+4'

O. Marmoush← Rodri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamManchester

Overview

40%Possession60%

12Total Shots15

1.05Expected Goals (xG)2.08

3Corners4

15Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots15

6On Target3

1Off Target8

5Blocked4

7Inside Box14

5Outside Box1

Passing

40%Possession60%

385Total Passes578

311Accurate Passes522

81%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

-0.27Goals Prevented-0.27

Discipline

15Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Premier League: Tottenham 2–2 Manchester City

Tottenham and Manchester City drew 2-2 in Premier League on February 1, 2026.

Goals: R. Cherki (11'), A. Semenyo (44'), D. Solanke (53', 70').

Manchester City controlled possession (60%) and registered 15 shots to 12.

The match was played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.

Tottenham vs Manchester City — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Tottenham 2–2 Manchester City