Tottenham 0–1 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Manchester City

E. Haaland 12'

2/26/2025

Premier League · Round 27Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Tottenham31%

×Draw25%

Manchester City44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.57

Tottenham

1.27

Manchester City

1.57

Manchester City creates 24% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 22 away

1.25

creates per match

1.75

1.39

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Tottenham

1.25

Manchester City

1.75

allows per match

Tottenham

1.39

Manchester City

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.00on par

Manchester City-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

56%

Tottenham or Manchester City

75%

Draw or Manchester City

69%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

13%

Manchester City wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

72%

Tottenham 2+ goals

36%

Tottenham 3+ goals

14%

Manchester City 1+ goals

79%

Manchester City 2+ goals

46%

Manchester City 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

41%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.39 · 24 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.29 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.25 + Manchester City defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Manchester City attack 1.75 + Tottenham defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tottenham scores more

31%

level

25%

Manchester City scores more

44%

Manchester City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

Ederson

Manchester City · G

8.5

Match Events

12'

E. Haaland

31'

Rodrigo Bentancur

57'

James Maddison

66'

D. Kulusevski← M. Tel

67'

D. Spence← D. Udogie

67'

P. Sarr← R. Bentancur

67'

Son Heung-Min← W. Odobert

74'

P. Foden← Omar Marmoush

74'

Bernardo Silva← Nico González

82'

T. Werner← J. Maddison

87'

Pape Matar Sarr

90'

J. McAtee← Savinho

90+2'

J. Grealish← J. Doku

90+4'

İ. Gündoğan← M. Kovačić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamManchester

Overview

56%Possession44%

11Total Shots12

1.33Expected Goals (xG)2.12

8Corners3

12Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots12

6On Target5

3Off Target2

2Blocked5

11Inside Box8

0Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

529Total Passes416

465Accurate Passes363

88%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

1.70Goals Prevented1.70

Discipline

12Fouls15

3Yellow Cards0

0Offsides2