Manchester City 0–4 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Tottenham

B. Johnson 90+3'

Pedro Porro 52'

J. Maddison 20', 13'

11/23/2024

Premier League · Round 12Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Manchester City54%

×Draw23%

Tottenham22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.06

Manchester City

1.79

Tottenham

1.06

Manchester City creates 69% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 33 away

2.04

creates per match

1.12

1.01

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Manchester City

2.04

Tottenham

1.12

allows per match

Manchester City

1.01

Tottenham

1.55

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Manchester City+0.22scores more

Tottenham+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

78%

Manchester City or Tottenham

77%

Draw or Tottenham

46%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

30%

Tottenham wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

83%

Manchester City 2+ goals

53%

Manchester City 3+ goals

26%

Tottenham 1+ goals

65%

Tottenham 2+ goals

29%

Tottenham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

71%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.01 · 27 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.04 + Tottenham defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.79

Tottenham attack 1.12 + Manchester City defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Manchester City scores more

54%

level

23%

Tottenham scores more

22%

Manchester City at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Maddison

Tottenham · M

9.3

Match Events

1'

Yves Bissouma

13'

J. Maddison↳ D. Kulusevski

20'

J. Maddison↳ Son Heung-Min

46'

N. Aké← J. Stones

52'

Pedro Porro↳ D. Solanke

55'

Rico Lewis

63'

B. Johnson← Son Heung-Min

74'

J. Grealish← R. Lewis

74'

K. De Bruyne← Savinho

78'

Bernardo Silva

80'

Kevin De Bruyne

80'

Pape Matar Sarr

89'

T. Werner← J. Maddison

90+2'

Manuel Akanji

90'

D. Spence← D. Udogie

90'

L. Bergvall← P. Sarr

90+3'

B. Johnson↳ T. Werner

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterTottenham

Overview

58%Possession42%

23Total Shots9

2.14Expected Goals (xG)2.51

9Corners3

19Fouls9

Shots

23Total Shots9

5On Target7

11Off Target2

7Blocked0

17Inside Box7

6Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

566Total Passes427

523Accurate Passes358

92%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

1.10Goals Prevented1.10

Discipline

19Fouls9

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Manchester City vs Tottenham

Tottenham beat Manchester City 4-0 in Premier League on November 23, 2024.

Goals: J. Maddison (13', 20'), Pedro Porro (52'), B. Johnson (90+3').

Manchester City controlled possession (58%) and registered 23 shots to 9.

The match was played at Etihad Stadium in Manchester.

Manchester City vs Tottenham — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Manchester City vs Tottenham